Modelagem da incidência do dengue através de aspectos climáticos, entomológicos e sócio-demográficos no município de João Pessoa, Paraíba

• Ano de defesa: 2011
• Autor(a) principal: Gomes, Renata Grigório Silva
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal da Paraí­ba; BR; Ciências Exatas e da Saúde; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Modelos de Decisão e Saúde; UFPB
• Palavras-chave em Português: Dengue; Mudanças climáticas; Tomada de Decisão; Climate change; Decision making; CIENCIAS DA SAUDE::SAUDE COLETIVA
• Link de acesso: https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/tede/6521

Climate alterations have been accompanied by ecological changes affecting human populations. From the time when climate change effects began to be disclosed, it has been increased researchers concerns on environmental issues and on the impact of these changes on ecosystems. The impacts on human health caused by climate change effect have also been studied and therefore, in recent years, several models have been proposed to explain such impact. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climatic variations on the proliferation of vectors which transmit the dengue virus in the city of Joao Pessoa, Paraiba, and also to propose a decision model on the proliferation of vectors which transmit the dengue virus in the city of Joao Pessoa, Paraiba. This was an observational study, conducted in three different stages: descriptive data analysis, analysis of existing models and creation of a decision model on the incidence of dengue. This study has found that an increase in air precipitation and relative humidity along with a decrease of temperature, wind speed and duration of daylight may lead to an increase in breeding and infestation of Aedes aegypti adult mosquitoes as well as to an increased incidence of dengue in the above mentioned municipality. As regards the effects caused by El Niño / La Niña, the relation of this phenomenon to the epidemiology of dengue in that city has been evidence on the local climate, cycle of the Aedes aegypti mosquito and on the increase in its incidence. The fuzzy decision model proposed has properly performed the identification of periods at epidemic risk through sets of prepared rules. Thus, it constitutes an important warning mechanism for identifying periods at epidemic risk in that municipality.