A matrix population forecasting model for Aedes aegypti considering basic sanitation environment, daily weather, and its impact over the dormancy state

• Ano de defesa: 2023
• Autor(a) principal: Bassani, Luana Tais
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Instituição de defesa: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
• Palavras-chave em Português: Abundância de Aedes aegypti; Aedes aegypti abundance; Condições climáticas; Matrix models; Modelos matriciais; Quiescence; Quiescência; Saneamento básico urbano; Urban basic sanitation; Weather conditions
• Link de acesso: https://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/45/45132/tde-07032024-190117/

Stage-structured matrix population models are useful to investigate population dynamics and have been successfully applied to vector modeling. To construct this model, we consider that these matrices\' blocks correspond to biological processes, which allows for building a bridge from the level of the individuals to the whole population. With this purpose, we developed a model to investigate the behavior of Aedes aegypti population dynamics and to estimate its abundance in Brazilian municipalities. There are four stages, corresponding to the quiescent eggs, nonquiescent eggs, the aquatic development (larvae and pupae), and the adult female mosquitoes. Each coordinate of the mosquito vector represents the number of individuals in the current stage over the same age. We considered a population projection matrix composed of oviposition, transition, and mortality functions, which depend on the daily mean or accumulated temperature, the individual age and stage, as well as the daily or accumulated precipitation and the basic sanitation of acity. There is an associated sparse matrix governing the system for each time step. Due to its structure, when we set constant weather conditions, we are able to evaluate stability and sensitivity analysis by calculating the net reproductive value. We compared the model simulation results to real data collected from mosquito traps as we attempted to validate the forecasting of the model\'s population dynamics for a medium-range period and to estimate the eggs and adult females abundance. We pointed out that the use of temperature and precipitation, together with the quiescence and urban sanitation approach, allowed us to verify the interference of the weather and basic sanitation for the development and maintenance of the population. Through modeling, we assessed the impact of sanitation improvements on Aedes aegypti fluctuation and the importance of collecting monthly data from urban endemic regions to encourage and support continuous surveillance schemes.