Find where they are: predicting suitable areas for the invasive species Erthesina fullo (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)

• Ano de defesa: 2023
• Autor(a) principal: Santos, Renata Cordeiro dos
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Palavras-chave em Português: Invasões biológicas; Análise multivariada; Percevejo (Inseto); Biossegurança; Mudanças climáticas; Entomologia Agrícola
• Link de acesso: https://locus.ufv.br//handle/123456789/32054; https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2023.157

Erthesina fullo (Thunberg) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) is an invasive pest from Asia that was recently detected in Europe (2017) and South America (2021). This pest has a high risk of establishment in introduced areas due to polyphagia and adaptation to various temperatures. Yet, there are no data about potentially suitable areas for species occurrence outside its native range despite the recent invasion events. In this study, we presented a model for the potential distribution of E. fullo based on the CLIMEX algorithm. We created the model using global species occurrence (1424 points), three climate scenarios (current, 2030, and 2080), and biological information available. We then estimated the ecoclimate index and weekly growth index to determine the suitability of regions in a general scenario over time. Under the current climate scenario, our model demonstrates that suitable areas for E. fullo comprised America, Africa, Europe, and Oceania. These areas are inside tropical and subtropical climates. However, the suitability was reduced in those climates (-28%) under future climate scenarios, increasing in temperate regions. In addition, the weekly growth index of E. fullo was positively correlated with the photoperiod. Our study can guide future efforts to avoid potential invasion and establishment of E. fullo outside its current range. Keywords: Invasion. Distribution modeling. Yellow-spotted stink bug. Biosecurity. CLIMEX. Climate change.