A influência da política monetária na demanda de veículos no Brasil (2000-2016) : uma análise por meio de vetores autorregressivos

• Ano de defesa: 2018
• Autor(a) principal: Santos, Matheus de Assis Duarte
• Orientador(a): Farias, Tácito Augusto
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Pós-Graduação em Economia
• Palavras-chave em Português: Economia; Política monetária; Demanda (Teoria econômica); Indústria automobilística; Modelos econométricos; Demanda por veículos; Choques monetários
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Monetary policy; Vehicle‟s demand; Monetary shocks
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA
• Link de acesso: http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/8693

Monetary authorities use monetary policy in onrder to control the liquidity of the economy, aiming at the stability of price levels. According to some school of of economy thought, a monetary policy can affect the real side of the economy, where the presence of a transmission mechanism can amplify it‟s effect. Based on this assumption, the objecive of this study was to evaluate the direction and magnitude of monetary shocks in vehicles demand in Brazil. The VAR (vector autorregression) model was used in a sampli that covers the period between 2000 and 2016 and, through the impulse responde function, the presente study does not find empirical evidence that a monetary shock exerts influence on the growth rate of vehicle‟s demand in Brazil and other macroeconomic variables related to the automotive industry significantly. Through four VAR models, it was verified that the presence of the bank lending channel does not amplify the effects of the SELIC rate as a monetary policy instrument.