Política comercial de incentivo às exportações do governo Fernando Henrique Cardoso: avaliação dos efeitos econômicos em modelo de equilíbrio geral computável

• Ano de defesa: 2020
• Autor(a) principal: Rocha, Adilson Bicudo da
• Orientador(a): Lucena, André Freire de
• Banca de defesa: Lucena, André Freire de, Rosa, Everton Sotto Tibiriça, Teixeira, Sônia Milagres
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Goiás
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Pós-graduação em Ciência Politica (FCS)
• Departamento: Faculdade de Ciências Sociais - FCS (RG)
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Política comercial; Fernando Henrique Cardoso; Matriz insumo-produto; Modelo de equilíbrio geral computável; Projeto de análise de equilíbrio geral da economia brasileira
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Commercial policy; Fernando Henrique Cardoso; Input-product matrix; Computable general equilibrium model; Project for the analysis of the general balance of the brazilian economy
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CIENCIAS HUMANAS::SOCIOLOGIA
• Link de acesso: http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/10858

This research aims to evaluate the economic effects in a computable general equilibrium model of the commercial policy to reduce financial costs carried out during the Fernando Henrique Cardoso administration. Theories of international trade, the input-output matrix and some tools that simulate general equilibrium were used as theoretical input. The tool chosen for the evaluation of these effects was the Project for Analysis of General Balance of the Brazilian Economy (PAEG) and the exogenous variables selected for the tests were the participation percentages of the BNDES-Exim programs, the Export Financing Program (Proex) and Guarantee Fund for the Promotion of Competitiveness (FGPC) in the total value of exports from 1995 to 2002. The results show that Brazil lost “national well-being” when employing this type of policy and that its disaggregated macro-regions gained well-being and export volume, except for the Southeast. Most regions of Brazil also gained in private consumption and showed a drop in the consumer price index. The rest of the world did not suffer drastic variations. It was considered that commercial policies to reduce financial costs linked to the promotion of exports can bring many benefits to the regions of Brazil, however, to understand the effects in more detail, it is necessary to carry out a specific study for each region.