Evolução recente e perspectivas para o setor da construção civil no Brasil: uma proposta de avaliação

• Ano de defesa: 2021
• Autor(a) principal: Souza, Lucas Nunes e
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Palavras-chave em Português: Metodologia Box Jenkins; Construção Civil; Bolsa d e Valores; Indicador de Atividade
• Link de acesso: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/59070

The work conducts an analysis of the civil construction sector based on the companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange [B] ³ and considering the current context of economic uncert ainty. To this pu rpose , it proposes the construction of an indicator with monthly data between 2016 and 2020 and according to the methodology used for the construction of the market indexes of [B] ³, aiming to incorporate all the companies studied in a single metric. The proposed ind i cator shows good adherence with market indicators, such as the benchmark interest rate SELIC, following an inverse relationship as predicted by macroeconomic theory. Based on the composite indicator, forecasting models were devel oped according to the Box Jenkins methodology in order to establish scenarios for this sector in 2021. The estimates of the models were compared with the forecasts proposed by experts in the sector and the results show divergence: while the indicator proje cts a scenario of recession in the sector, market experts suggest a favorable year for it, a fact that, associate d with a perspective of high interest rates, may further compromise the scenario projected in this sector.