Decisão de investimento em empresa de pequeno porte de comércio e serviços: uma abordagem probabilística com a teoria das restrições e a teoria das opções reais

• Ano de defesa: 2012
• Autor(a) principal: Santos Neto, João Batista dos
• Orientador(a): Galegale, Napoleão Verardi
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Estudos Pós-Graduados em Ciências Contábeis e Atuariais
• Departamento: Ciências Cont. Atuariais
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Teoria das restrições; Contabilidade de ganhos; Teoria das opções reais; Gestão de risco; Condição de incerteza; Fluxo de caixa descontado; Decisão de investimento; Micro e pequena empresa
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Theory of Constraints. Accounting of Earnings; Theory of real options; Risk management; Condition of uncertainty; Discounted cash flow; Investment decision; Micro and small business
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAO::CIENCIAS CONTABEIS
• Link de acesso: https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/1501

Many investment projects present as relevant characteristics: the uncertainty to future earnings, the irreversibility of investment and the managerial flexibility, with regard to the freedom with the decision making in the time. Studies show that these characteristics are not treated by the traditional methods of planning and evaluation of investment, and for to supplement the limitations of these methods, an alternative that is gaining prominence is the Real Options Theory, whose application has been studied with a focus on investments that require large amounts of capital, such as mining, oil exploration and power generation. This alternative can also benefit investment projects for micro and small companies, providing that are taken into account their constraints, especially in relation to the amount of capital available. This paper aims to propose a method for planning and evaluation of investment, with the joint application of the Theory of Constraints - TOC - and of the Real Options Theory - TOR - in the process of decision making for investment in small businesses the trade sectors of products and services. The methodology consisted of an exploratory research and development of a Single Case Study, which focused on the application of the proposed method in financial planning before the opening of a business focused on sales of products and services for pets. The case study validated the hypothesis and attested the effectiveness of the proposed method, because beyond of make possible a level of free cash flow near to the traditional methods, the proposed method has made possible: the optimization of production capacity and financial resources available; the identification of the lower risk option, and the maximizing of the return on investment