Thunderstorms life cycle observation: satellite multi-channel model for warning system

Detalhes bibliográficos
Ano de defesa: 2017
Autor(a) principal: Lina Esther Rivelli Zea
Orientador(a): Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado
Banca de defesa: Juan Carlos Ceballos, Enrique Viera Mattos, Stephen William Nesbitt
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
Idioma: eng
Instituição de defesa: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Pós-Graduação do INPE em Meteorologia
Departamento: Não Informado pela instituição
País: BR
Link de acesso: http://urlib.net/sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2017/07.03.18.29
Resumo: The principal objective of this research is to identify typical cloud-top signatures of incipient thunderstorms and its early electrification process in satellite multi-channel observations as means of building a conceptual model of thunderstorm detection based on brightness temperature and electrification life cycle association. The methods toward the principal objective analyzed the data set of CHUVA-Vale field campaign from 01 November 2011 to 31 March 2012, including multi-channel observations from the SEVIRI infrared fields, a radar-lightning co-located data set and a sample of 40 compact isolated thunderstorms. The sequence for each infrared field comprises the parallax correction in satellite observations; the co-location of satellite and radar-lightning data; the selection of an evaluation area for thunderstorm detection, and the construction of brightness temperature relative cumulative-frequency distributions along with respective thresholds analysis and validation. Consequently, 4 thunderstorm predictors used in tandem to detect the largest differentiation among the lightning time steps and significant cumulus cloud and electrification intensification, resulted throughout parameters in corresponding brightness temperature histograms whose thresholds are as follows: IF1 or Predictor 1= Ch05-Ch06: (6.2 − 7.3) $\mu$m: Tbd $\geq$ −14.0 K; IF2 or Predictor 2= 10.8 $\mu$m: Tb $\leq$ +263.0 K, IF3 or Predictor 3= (6.2 − 10.8) $\mu$m: Tbd $\geq$ −14.0 K and IF4 or Predictor 4= (8.7−10.8)−(10.8−12.0) $\mu$m: Tbd $\geq$ 0 K. Additionally, an independent 2-day validation test indicated that the conceptual model has a higher probability of lightning detection for the interval of index sums from 16 to 12 because of the higher POD and lower FAR. Also the results indicated that the conceptual model has a lower probability of lightning detection for the interval of index sums from 8 to 4 because of the lower POD and higher FAR. This representative behavior of the thunderstorm electrification life cycle in geostationary satellite multi-channel observations will allow a potential development of nowcasting tools at the boundary of subtropical regions using data from the Meteosat Second Generation Satellite, and with the perspective to use in the near future, the data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R and the imminent Meteosat Third Generation Satellite.