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A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Magalhães,Pedro C.
Data de Publicação: 2017
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
Texto Completo: http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0003-25732017000400001
Resumo: A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections. Economic performance is thought to be a powerful driver of incumbent electoral performance, and GDP growth and unemployment to be the “big two” factors involved. However, while in the 2011 elections, under a profound economic recession and growing unemployment, the Socialist incumbents lost about one-fourth of the electorate, the center-right coalition experienced losses of similar magnitude in 2015 under a recovering economy and growing employment. Why has this happened? I explore three hypotheses: (1) the economy became a less salient issue in 2015; (2) responsibility for economic outcomes became more blurred in 2015; and (3) national economic evaluations were more contaminated by partisanship and affected by cognitive resources and personal economic experiences in 2015.
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spelling A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese electionselectionseconomic votingmotivated reasoningausterity policiesA tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections. Economic performance is thought to be a powerful driver of incumbent electoral performance, and GDP growth and unemployment to be the “big two” factors involved. However, while in the 2011 elections, under a profound economic recession and growing unemployment, the Socialist incumbents lost about one-fourth of the electorate, the center-right coalition experienced losses of similar magnitude in 2015 under a recovering economy and growing employment. Why has this happened? I explore three hypotheses: (1) the economy became a less salient issue in 2015; (2) responsibility for economic outcomes became more blurred in 2015; and (3) national economic evaluations were more contaminated by partisanship and affected by cognitive resources and personal economic experiences in 2015.Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa2017-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articletext/htmlhttp://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0003-25732017000400001Análise Social n.225 2017reponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiainstacron:RCAAPenghttp://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0003-25732017000400001Magalhães,Pedro C.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-02-06T16:57:13Zoai:scielo:S0003-25732017000400001Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireinfo@rcaap.ptopendoar:https://opendoar.ac.uk/repository/71602025-05-28T12:47:57.553976Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
title A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
spellingShingle A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
Magalhães,Pedro C.
elections
economic voting
motivated reasoning
austerity policies
title_short A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
title_full A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
title_fullStr A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
title_full_unstemmed A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
title_sort A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
author Magalhães,Pedro C.
author_facet Magalhães,Pedro C.
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Magalhães,Pedro C.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv elections
economic voting
motivated reasoning
austerity policies
topic elections
economic voting
motivated reasoning
austerity policies
description A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections. Economic performance is thought to be a powerful driver of incumbent electoral performance, and GDP growth and unemployment to be the “big two” factors involved. However, while in the 2011 elections, under a profound economic recession and growing unemployment, the Socialist incumbents lost about one-fourth of the electorate, the center-right coalition experienced losses of similar magnitude in 2015 under a recovering economy and growing employment. Why has this happened? I explore three hypotheses: (1) the economy became a less salient issue in 2015; (2) responsibility for economic outcomes became more blurred in 2015; and (3) national economic evaluations were more contaminated by partisanship and affected by cognitive resources and personal economic experiences in 2015.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-12-01
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0003-25732017000400001
url http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0003-25732017000400001
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0003-25732017000400001
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Análise Social n.225 2017
reponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
collection Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
repository.mail.fl_str_mv info@rcaap.pt
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