A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Magalhães, Pedro
Publication Date: 2017
Format: Article
Language: eng
Source: Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
Download full: https://doi.org/10.31447/AS00032573.2017225.01
Summary: Economic performance is thought to be a powerful driver of incumbent electoral performance, and GDP growth and unemployment to be the “big two” factors involved. However, while in the 2011 elections, under a profound economic recession and growing unemployment, the Socialist incumbents lost about one-fourth of the electorate, the center-right coalition experienced losses of similar magnitude in 2015 under a recovering economy and growing employment. Why has this happened? I explore three hypotheses: (1) the economy became a less salient issue in 2015; (2) responsibility for economic outcomes became more blurred in 2015; and (3) national economic evaluations were more contaminated by partisanship and affected by cognitive resources and personal economic experiences in 2015.
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spelling A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections.Um conto de duas eleições: informação, raciocínio motivado e a economia nas eleições portuguesas de 2011 e 2015eleiçõesvoto económicoraciocínio motivadopolíticas de austeridadeelectionseconomic votingmotivated reasoningausterity policies.Economic performance is thought to be a powerful driver of incumbent electoral performance, and GDP growth and unemployment to be the “big two” factors involved. However, while in the 2011 elections, under a profound economic recession and growing unemployment, the Socialist incumbents lost about one-fourth of the electorate, the center-right coalition experienced losses of similar magnitude in 2015 under a recovering economy and growing employment. Why has this happened? I explore three hypotheses: (1) the economy became a less salient issue in 2015; (2) responsibility for economic outcomes became more blurred in 2015; and (3) national economic evaluations were more contaminated by partisanship and affected by cognitive resources and personal economic experiences in 2015..Pensa-se que o desempenho da economia é um poderoso factor na explicação do desempenho eleitoral dos partidos do governo, e que o crescimento do PIB e o desemprego são os “dois grandes” factores envolvidos. No entanto, enquanto o Partido Socialista perdeu cerca de um quarto dos votos em 2011 sob uma profunda recessão económica e com o desemprego a crescer, a coligação de centro-direita sofreu perdas semelhantes em 2015 sob uma economia em recuperação e com crescimento do emprego. Por que razão sucedeu isto? Exploro três hipóteses: (1) a economia ter-se-á tornado um tema menos saliente para os eleitores em 2015; (2) a responsabilidade pelos resultados da economia ter-se-á tornado mais difusa em 2015; e (3) as avaliações da evolução da economia por parte dos eleitores foram mais contaminadas pela identificação partidária e mais afetadas pelos seus recursos cognitivos e experiências económicas pessoais em 2015.Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa2017-12-29info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.31447/AS00032573.2017225.01https://doi.org/10.31447/AS00032573.2017225.01Análise Social; Vol. 52 N.º 225 (2017); 736-7582182-29990003-2573reponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiainstacron:RCAAPenghttps://revistas.rcaap.pt/analisesocial/article/view/22403https://revistas.rcaap.pt/analisesocial/article/view/22403/16492Direitos de Autor (c) 2017 Análise Socialinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMagalhães, Pedro2024-03-09T06:15:10Zoai:ojs.revistas.rcaap.pt:article/22403Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireinfo@rcaap.ptopendoar:https://opendoar.ac.uk/repository/71602025-05-28T10:01:10.773953Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
.
Um conto de duas eleições: informação, raciocínio motivado e a economia nas eleições portuguesas de 2011 e 2015
title A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
spellingShingle A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
Magalhães, Pedro
eleições
voto económico
raciocínio motivado
políticas de austeridade
elections
economic voting
motivated reasoning
austerity policies
.
title_short A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
title_full A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
title_fullStr A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
title_full_unstemmed A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
title_sort A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections
author Magalhães, Pedro
author_facet Magalhães, Pedro
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Magalhães, Pedro
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv eleições
voto económico
raciocínio motivado
políticas de austeridade
elections
economic voting
motivated reasoning
austerity policies
.
topic eleições
voto económico
raciocínio motivado
políticas de austeridade
elections
economic voting
motivated reasoning
austerity policies
.
description Economic performance is thought to be a powerful driver of incumbent electoral performance, and GDP growth and unemployment to be the “big two” factors involved. However, while in the 2011 elections, under a profound economic recession and growing unemployment, the Socialist incumbents lost about one-fourth of the electorate, the center-right coalition experienced losses of similar magnitude in 2015 under a recovering economy and growing employment. Why has this happened? I explore three hypotheses: (1) the economy became a less salient issue in 2015; (2) responsibility for economic outcomes became more blurred in 2015; and (3) national economic evaluations were more contaminated by partisanship and affected by cognitive resources and personal economic experiences in 2015.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-12-29
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.31447/AS00032573.2017225.01
https://doi.org/10.31447/AS00032573.2017225.01
url https://doi.org/10.31447/AS00032573.2017225.01
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://revistas.rcaap.pt/analisesocial/article/view/22403
https://revistas.rcaap.pt/analisesocial/article/view/22403/16492
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Direitos de Autor (c) 2017 Análise Social
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Direitos de Autor (c) 2017 Análise Social
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Análise Social; Vol. 52 N.º 225 (2017); 736-758
2182-2999
0003-2573
reponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
collection Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
repository.mail.fl_str_mv info@rcaap.pt
_version_ 1833590368970473472

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