Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015

• Autor(a) principal: Yang, D
• Data de Publicação: 2024
• Outros Autores: Hashizume, M, Tobías, A, Honda, Y, Roye, D, Oh, J, Dang, TN, Kim, Y, Abrutzky, R, Guo, Y, Tong, S, Coelho, MDSZS, Saldiva, PHN, Lavigne, E, Correa, PM, Ortega, NV, Osorio, S, Kyselý, J, Urban, A, Orru, H, Indermitte, E, Jaakkola, J, Ryti, N, Pascal, M, Huber, V, Schneider, A, Katsouyanni, K, Analitis, A, Entezari, A, Mayvaneh, F, Goodman, P, Zeka, A, Michelozzi, P, de’Donato, F, Alahmad, B, Diaz, MH, Valencia, CDLC, Overcenco, A, Houthuijs, D, Ameling, C, Rao, S, Nunes, B, Madureira, J, Holo-Bâc, IH, Scovronick, N, Acquaotta, F, Kim, H, Lee, W, Íñiguez, C, Forsberg, B, Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Ragettli, MS, Guo, Y-LL, Pan, SC, Li, S, Sera, F, Zanobetti, A, Schwartz, J, Armstrong, B, Gasparrini, A, Chung, Y
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
• Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10216/162456

Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986–2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = −2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations. Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.