Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Yang, Daewon
Publication Date: 2024
Other Authors: Hashizume, Masahiro, Tobías, Aurelio, Honda, Yasushi, Roye, Dominic, Oh, Jaemin, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Kim, Yoonhee, Abrutzky, Rosana, Guo, Yuming, Tong, Shilu, Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Lavigne, Eric, Correa, Patricia Matus, Ortega, Nicolás Valdés, Osorio, Samuel, Kyselý, Jan, Urban, Aleš, Orru, Hans, Indermitte, Ene, Jaakkola, Jouni, Ryti, Niilo, Pascal, Mathilde, Huber, Veronika, Schneider, Alexandra, Katsouyanni, Klea, Analitis, Antonis, Entezari, Alireza, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Goodman, Patrick, Zeka, Ariana, Michelozzi, Paola, de’Donato, Francesca, Alahmad, Barrak, Diaz, Magali Hurtado, Valencia, César De la Cruz, Overcenco, Ala, Houthuijs, Danny, Ameling, Caroline, Rao, Shilpa, Nunes, Baltazar, Madureira, Joana, Holo-Bâc, Iulian Horia, Scovronick, Noah, Acquaotta, Fiorella, Kim, Ho, Lee, Whanhee, Íñiguez, Carmen, Forsberg, Bertil, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Ragettli, Martina S., Guo, Yue Liang Leon, Pan, Shih Chun, Li, Shanshan, Sera, Francesco, Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel, Armstrong, Ben, Gasparrini, Antonio, Chung, Yeonseung
Format: Article
Language: eng
Source: Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
Download full: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/174435
Summary: Funding Information: D.Y. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (NRF-2022M3J6A1084843). Y.C. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant funded by the Korea Government (MSIT) (No. 2022M3J6A1063021). A.T. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 24K13527. Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of Environment, Japan. M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) as part of SICORP (grant number JPMJSC20E4). A.G. was supported by the Medical Research Council, UK (MR/R013349/1 and MR/V034162/1) and the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). A.S. was supported by the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). J.M. was supported by an FCT grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.
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spelling Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climatea multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015Climate changeHeterogeneityHuman adaptationMinimum mortality temperatureTemporal changeEpidemiologyGlobal and Planetary ChangePollutionPublic Health, Environmental and Occupational HealthHealth, Toxicology and MutagenesisSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingSDG 13 - Climate ActionFunding Information: D.Y. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (NRF-2022M3J6A1084843). Y.C. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant funded by the Korea Government (MSIT) (No. 2022M3J6A1063021). A.T. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 24K13527. Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of Environment, Japan. M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) as part of SICORP (grant number JPMJSC20E4). A.G. was supported by the Medical Research Council, UK (MR/R013349/1 and MR/V034162/1) and the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). A.S. was supported by the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). J.M. was supported by an FCT grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986–2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = −2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.Comprehensive Health Research Centre (CHRC) - Pólo ENSPCentro de Investigação em Saúde Pública (CISP/PHRC)Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública (ENSP)RUNYang, DaewonHashizume, MasahiroTobías, AurelioHonda, YasushiRoye, DominicOh, JaeminDang, Tran NgocKim, YoonheeAbrutzky, RosanaGuo, YumingTong, ShiluCoelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti StagliorioSaldiva, Paulo Hilario NascimentoLavigne, EricCorrea, Patricia MatusOrtega, Nicolás ValdésOsorio, SamuelKyselý, JanUrban, AlešOrru, HansIndermitte, EneJaakkola, JouniRyti, NiiloPascal, MathildeHuber, VeronikaSchneider, AlexandraKatsouyanni, KleaAnalitis, AntonisEntezari, AlirezaMayvaneh, FatemehGoodman, PatrickZeka, ArianaMichelozzi, Paolade’Donato, FrancescaAlahmad, BarrakDiaz, Magali HurtadoValencia, César De la CruzOvercenco, AlaHouthuijs, DannyAmeling, CarolineRao, ShilpaNunes, BaltazarMadureira, JoanaHolo-Bâc, Iulian HoriaScovronick, NoahAcquaotta, FiorellaKim, HoLee, WhanheeÍñiguez, CarmenForsberg, BertilVicedo-Cabrera, Ana MariaRagettli, Martina S.Guo, Yue Liang LeonPan, Shih ChunLi, ShanshanSera, FrancescoZanobetti, AntonellaSchwartz, JoelArmstrong, BenGasparrini, AntonioChung, Yeonseung2024-10-31T23:26:03Z2024-09-302024-09-30T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/174435eng2474-7882PURE: 102276741https://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiainstacron:RCAAP2024-11-11T01:40:57Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/174435Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireinfo@rcaap.ptopendoar:https://opendoar.ac.uk/repository/71602025-05-28T19:12:46.965482Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate
a multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015
title Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate
spellingShingle Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate
Yang, Daewon
Climate change
Heterogeneity
Human adaptation
Minimum mortality temperature
Temporal change
Epidemiology
Global and Planetary Change
Pollution
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
SDG 13 - Climate Action
title_short Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate
title_full Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate
title_fullStr Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate
title_full_unstemmed Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate
title_sort Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate
author Yang, Daewon
author_facet Yang, Daewon
Hashizume, Masahiro
Tobías, Aurelio
Honda, Yasushi
Roye, Dominic
Oh, Jaemin
Dang, Tran Ngoc
Kim, Yoonhee
Abrutzky, Rosana
Guo, Yuming
Tong, Shilu
Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
Lavigne, Eric
Correa, Patricia Matus
Ortega, Nicolás Valdés
Osorio, Samuel
Kyselý, Jan
Urban, Aleš
Orru, Hans
Indermitte, Ene
Jaakkola, Jouni
Ryti, Niilo
Pascal, Mathilde
Huber, Veronika
Schneider, Alexandra
Katsouyanni, Klea
Analitis, Antonis
Entezari, Alireza
Mayvaneh, Fatemeh
Goodman, Patrick
Zeka, Ariana
Michelozzi, Paola
de’Donato, Francesca
Alahmad, Barrak
Diaz, Magali Hurtado
Valencia, César De la Cruz
Overcenco, Ala
Houthuijs, Danny
Ameling, Caroline
Rao, Shilpa
Nunes, Baltazar
Madureira, Joana
Holo-Bâc, Iulian Horia
Scovronick, Noah
Acquaotta, Fiorella
Kim, Ho
Lee, Whanhee
Íñiguez, Carmen
Forsberg, Bertil
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
Ragettli, Martina S.
Guo, Yue Liang Leon
Pan, Shih Chun
Li, Shanshan
Sera, Francesco
Zanobetti, Antonella
Schwartz, Joel
Armstrong, Ben
Gasparrini, Antonio
Chung, Yeonseung
author_role author
author2 Hashizume, Masahiro
Tobías, Aurelio
Honda, Yasushi
Roye, Dominic
Oh, Jaemin
Dang, Tran Ngoc
Kim, Yoonhee
Abrutzky, Rosana
Guo, Yuming
Tong, Shilu
Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
Lavigne, Eric
Correa, Patricia Matus
Ortega, Nicolás Valdés
Osorio, Samuel
Kyselý, Jan
Urban, Aleš
Orru, Hans
Indermitte, Ene
Jaakkola, Jouni
Ryti, Niilo
Pascal, Mathilde
Huber, Veronika
Schneider, Alexandra
Katsouyanni, Klea
Analitis, Antonis
Entezari, Alireza
Mayvaneh, Fatemeh
Goodman, Patrick
Zeka, Ariana
Michelozzi, Paola
de’Donato, Francesca
Alahmad, Barrak
Diaz, Magali Hurtado
Valencia, César De la Cruz
Overcenco, Ala
Houthuijs, Danny
Ameling, Caroline
Rao, Shilpa
Nunes, Baltazar
Madureira, Joana
Holo-Bâc, Iulian Horia
Scovronick, Noah
Acquaotta, Fiorella
Kim, Ho
Lee, Whanhee
Íñiguez, Carmen
Forsberg, Bertil
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
Ragettli, Martina S.
Guo, Yue Liang Leon
Pan, Shih Chun
Li, Shanshan
Sera, Francesco
Zanobetti, Antonella
Schwartz, Joel
Armstrong, Ben
Gasparrini, Antonio
Chung, Yeonseung
author2_role author
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dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Comprehensive Health Research Centre (CHRC) - Pólo ENSP
Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública (CISP/PHRC)
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública (ENSP)
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Yang, Daewon
Hashizume, Masahiro
Tobías, Aurelio
Honda, Yasushi
Roye, Dominic
Oh, Jaemin
Dang, Tran Ngoc
Kim, Yoonhee
Abrutzky, Rosana
Guo, Yuming
Tong, Shilu
Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
Lavigne, Eric
Correa, Patricia Matus
Ortega, Nicolás Valdés
Osorio, Samuel
Kyselý, Jan
Urban, Aleš
Orru, Hans
Indermitte, Ene
Jaakkola, Jouni
Ryti, Niilo
Pascal, Mathilde
Huber, Veronika
Schneider, Alexandra
Katsouyanni, Klea
Analitis, Antonis
Entezari, Alireza
Mayvaneh, Fatemeh
Goodman, Patrick
Zeka, Ariana
Michelozzi, Paola
de’Donato, Francesca
Alahmad, Barrak
Diaz, Magali Hurtado
Valencia, César De la Cruz
Overcenco, Ala
Houthuijs, Danny
Ameling, Caroline
Rao, Shilpa
Nunes, Baltazar
Madureira, Joana
Holo-Bâc, Iulian Horia
Scovronick, Noah
Acquaotta, Fiorella
Kim, Ho
Lee, Whanhee
Íñiguez, Carmen
Forsberg, Bertil
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
Ragettli, Martina S.
Guo, Yue Liang Leon
Pan, Shih Chun
Li, Shanshan
Sera, Francesco
Zanobetti, Antonella
Schwartz, Joel
Armstrong, Ben
Gasparrini, Antonio
Chung, Yeonseung
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Climate change
Heterogeneity
Human adaptation
Minimum mortality temperature
Temporal change
Epidemiology
Global and Planetary Change
Pollution
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
SDG 13 - Climate Action
topic Climate change
Heterogeneity
Human adaptation
Minimum mortality temperature
Temporal change
Epidemiology
Global and Planetary Change
Pollution
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
SDG 13 - Climate Action
description Funding Information: D.Y. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (NRF-2022M3J6A1084843). Y.C. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant funded by the Korea Government (MSIT) (No. 2022M3J6A1063021). A.T. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 24K13527. Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of Environment, Japan. M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) as part of SICORP (grant number JPMJSC20E4). A.G. was supported by the Medical Research Council, UK (MR/R013349/1 and MR/V034162/1) and the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). A.S. was supported by the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). J.M. was supported by an FCT grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-10-31T23:26:03Z
2024-09-30
2024-09-30T00:00:00Z
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