Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate
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| Publication Date: | 2024 |
| Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | eng |
| Source: | Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) |
| Download full: | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/174435 |
Summary: | Funding Information: D.Y. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (NRF-2022M3J6A1084843). Y.C. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant funded by the Korea Government (MSIT) (No. 2022M3J6A1063021). A.T. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 24K13527. Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of Environment, Japan. M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) as part of SICORP (grant number JPMJSC20E4). A.G. was supported by the Medical Research Council, UK (MR/R013349/1 and MR/V034162/1) and the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). A.S. was supported by the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). J.M. was supported by an FCT grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. |
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Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climatea multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015Climate changeHeterogeneityHuman adaptationMinimum mortality temperatureTemporal changeEpidemiologyGlobal and Planetary ChangePollutionPublic Health, Environmental and Occupational HealthHealth, Toxicology and MutagenesisSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingSDG 13 - Climate ActionFunding Information: D.Y. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (NRF-2022M3J6A1084843). Y.C. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant funded by the Korea Government (MSIT) (No. 2022M3J6A1063021). A.T. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 24K13527. Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of Environment, Japan. M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) as part of SICORP (grant number JPMJSC20E4). A.G. was supported by the Medical Research Council, UK (MR/R013349/1 and MR/V034162/1) and the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). A.S. was supported by the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). J.M. was supported by an FCT grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986–2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = −2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.Comprehensive Health Research Centre (CHRC) - Pólo ENSPCentro de Investigação em Saúde Pública (CISP/PHRC)Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública (ENSP)RUNYang, DaewonHashizume, MasahiroTobías, AurelioHonda, YasushiRoye, DominicOh, JaeminDang, Tran NgocKim, YoonheeAbrutzky, RosanaGuo, YumingTong, ShiluCoelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti StagliorioSaldiva, Paulo Hilario NascimentoLavigne, EricCorrea, Patricia MatusOrtega, Nicolás ValdésOsorio, SamuelKyselý, JanUrban, AlešOrru, HansIndermitte, EneJaakkola, JouniRyti, NiiloPascal, MathildeHuber, VeronikaSchneider, AlexandraKatsouyanni, KleaAnalitis, AntonisEntezari, AlirezaMayvaneh, FatemehGoodman, PatrickZeka, ArianaMichelozzi, Paolade’Donato, FrancescaAlahmad, BarrakDiaz, Magali HurtadoValencia, César De la CruzOvercenco, AlaHouthuijs, DannyAmeling, CarolineRao, ShilpaNunes, BaltazarMadureira, JoanaHolo-Bâc, Iulian HoriaScovronick, NoahAcquaotta, FiorellaKim, HoLee, WhanheeÍñiguez, CarmenForsberg, BertilVicedo-Cabrera, Ana MariaRagettli, Martina S.Guo, Yue Liang LeonPan, Shih ChunLi, ShanshanSera, FrancescoZanobetti, AntonellaSchwartz, JoelArmstrong, BenGasparrini, AntonioChung, Yeonseung2024-10-31T23:26:03Z2024-09-302024-09-30T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/174435eng2474-7882PURE: 102276741https://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiainstacron:RCAAP2024-11-11T01:40:57Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/174435Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireinfo@rcaap.ptopendoar:https://opendoar.ac.uk/repository/71602025-05-28T19:12:46.965482Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiafalse |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate a multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015 |
| title |
Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate |
| spellingShingle |
Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate Yang, Daewon Climate change Heterogeneity Human adaptation Minimum mortality temperature Temporal change Epidemiology Global and Planetary Change Pollution Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| title_short |
Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate |
| title_full |
Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate |
| title_fullStr |
Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate |
| title_sort |
Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate |
| author |
Yang, Daewon |
| author_facet |
Yang, Daewon Hashizume, Masahiro Tobías, Aurelio Honda, Yasushi Roye, Dominic Oh, Jaemin Dang, Tran Ngoc Kim, Yoonhee Abrutzky, Rosana Guo, Yuming Tong, Shilu Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Lavigne, Eric Correa, Patricia Matus Ortega, Nicolás Valdés Osorio, Samuel Kyselý, Jan Urban, Aleš Orru, Hans Indermitte, Ene Jaakkola, Jouni Ryti, Niilo Pascal, Mathilde Huber, Veronika Schneider, Alexandra Katsouyanni, Klea Analitis, Antonis Entezari, Alireza Mayvaneh, Fatemeh Goodman, Patrick Zeka, Ariana Michelozzi, Paola de’Donato, Francesca Alahmad, Barrak Diaz, Magali Hurtado Valencia, César De la Cruz Overcenco, Ala Houthuijs, Danny Ameling, Caroline Rao, Shilpa Nunes, Baltazar Madureira, Joana Holo-Bâc, Iulian Horia Scovronick, Noah Acquaotta, Fiorella Kim, Ho Lee, Whanhee Íñiguez, Carmen Forsberg, Bertil Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Ragettli, Martina S. Guo, Yue Liang Leon Pan, Shih Chun Li, Shanshan Sera, Francesco Zanobetti, Antonella Schwartz, Joel Armstrong, Ben Gasparrini, Antonio Chung, Yeonseung |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Hashizume, Masahiro Tobías, Aurelio Honda, Yasushi Roye, Dominic Oh, Jaemin Dang, Tran Ngoc Kim, Yoonhee Abrutzky, Rosana Guo, Yuming Tong, Shilu Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Lavigne, Eric Correa, Patricia Matus Ortega, Nicolás Valdés Osorio, Samuel Kyselý, Jan Urban, Aleš Orru, Hans Indermitte, Ene Jaakkola, Jouni Ryti, Niilo Pascal, Mathilde Huber, Veronika Schneider, Alexandra Katsouyanni, Klea Analitis, Antonis Entezari, Alireza Mayvaneh, Fatemeh Goodman, Patrick Zeka, Ariana Michelozzi, Paola de’Donato, Francesca Alahmad, Barrak Diaz, Magali Hurtado Valencia, César De la Cruz Overcenco, Ala Houthuijs, Danny Ameling, Caroline Rao, Shilpa Nunes, Baltazar Madureira, Joana Holo-Bâc, Iulian Horia Scovronick, Noah Acquaotta, Fiorella Kim, Ho Lee, Whanhee Íñiguez, Carmen Forsberg, Bertil Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Ragettli, Martina S. Guo, Yue Liang Leon Pan, Shih Chun Li, Shanshan Sera, Francesco Zanobetti, Antonella Schwartz, Joel Armstrong, Ben Gasparrini, Antonio Chung, Yeonseung |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Comprehensive Health Research Centre (CHRC) - Pólo ENSP Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública (CISP/PHRC) Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública (ENSP) RUN |
| dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Yang, Daewon Hashizume, Masahiro Tobías, Aurelio Honda, Yasushi Roye, Dominic Oh, Jaemin Dang, Tran Ngoc Kim, Yoonhee Abrutzky, Rosana Guo, Yuming Tong, Shilu Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Lavigne, Eric Correa, Patricia Matus Ortega, Nicolás Valdés Osorio, Samuel Kyselý, Jan Urban, Aleš Orru, Hans Indermitte, Ene Jaakkola, Jouni Ryti, Niilo Pascal, Mathilde Huber, Veronika Schneider, Alexandra Katsouyanni, Klea Analitis, Antonis Entezari, Alireza Mayvaneh, Fatemeh Goodman, Patrick Zeka, Ariana Michelozzi, Paola de’Donato, Francesca Alahmad, Barrak Diaz, Magali Hurtado Valencia, César De la Cruz Overcenco, Ala Houthuijs, Danny Ameling, Caroline Rao, Shilpa Nunes, Baltazar Madureira, Joana Holo-Bâc, Iulian Horia Scovronick, Noah Acquaotta, Fiorella Kim, Ho Lee, Whanhee Íñiguez, Carmen Forsberg, Bertil Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Ragettli, Martina S. Guo, Yue Liang Leon Pan, Shih Chun Li, Shanshan Sera, Francesco Zanobetti, Antonella Schwartz, Joel Armstrong, Ben Gasparrini, Antonio Chung, Yeonseung |
| dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Climate change Heterogeneity Human adaptation Minimum mortality temperature Temporal change Epidemiology Global and Planetary Change Pollution Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| topic |
Climate change Heterogeneity Human adaptation Minimum mortality temperature Temporal change Epidemiology Global and Planetary Change Pollution Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| description |
Funding Information: D.Y. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (NRF-2022M3J6A1084843). Y.C. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant funded by the Korea Government (MSIT) (No. 2022M3J6A1063021). A.T. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 24K13527. Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of Environment, Japan. M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) as part of SICORP (grant number JPMJSC20E4). A.G. was supported by the Medical Research Council, UK (MR/R013349/1 and MR/V034162/1) and the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). A.S. was supported by the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655). J.M. was supported by an FCT grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. |
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2024 |
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2024-10-31T23:26:03Z 2024-09-30 2024-09-30T00:00:00Z |
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