Indústria de transformação brasileira: uma análise do índice de expectativas dos empresários industriais, investimento privado e emprego (2003-2017)

• Ano de defesa: 2018
• Autor(a) principal: Ribeiro, Laudelina Alves
• Orientador(a): Stamm, Christiano
• Banca de defesa: Stamm, Christiano , Gabriel, Flávio Braga de Almeida , Santoyo, Alain Hernández
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná; Toledo
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia
• Departamento: Centro de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Índice de expectativas dos empresários industriais; Investimento privado e emprego; Indústria de transformação brasileira; VECM
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Industrial entrepreneurs’ expectations index; Private investment and employment; Brazilian transformation industry
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA
• Link de acesso: http://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/3987

The study of the Rational Expectations Hypotesis (REH) had its beginning after the 1960’s, setting the economic agents’ rationality as the theoretical base. The economic agents settle their expectations according to the current economic outlook; therefore, the economic environment becomes an important factor in shaping the entrepreneurs’ expectations, since great part of the decisions which entrepreneurs take occur in an economic scenario more uncertain. This dissertation aims to analyse the influence of the brazilian entrepreneurs’ expectations index in the transformation industry sector over the private investment, as well as the employment level in this industry. The period taken to be analysed is 2003-2017, and the data is monthly. The econometric model used to calculate the influence was estimated by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show that the entrepreneurs’ expectations index in the processing industry sector had a considerable influence over the decisions of private investment and the level of employment in that sector in Brazil. Thus, a stable economic scenario leads to an increase in the level of confidence in the industry sector, which can stimulate the growth in the industrial sector output and in several other sectors throughout the country.