Potential productivity of maize in Mozambique: modelling of current and future scenarios

• Ano de defesa: 2021
• Autor(a) principal: Macamo, Alberto Domingos
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Palavras-chave em Português: Mudanças climáticas - Moçambique; Milho - Cultivo - Moçambique; Milho - Fatores climáticos - Moçambique; Produtividade agrícola - Aspectos ambientais - Métodos de simulação; Agrometeorologia
• Link de acesso: https://locus.ufv.br//handle/123456789/28628; https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2021.212

Food security is seriously compromised due to climate change. Of the various existing methods of adapting to the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity, it involves knowledge of the productive potential, the possible impacts of climate change, as well as the application of technology to maximize yields. The main objective of this study was to model a maize crop productivity potential in Mozambique for the current scenario (1981–2020) and future scenarios (mean temperature increase scenario). This study used data from the ERA5 model in representation of observed data to estimate maize crop yield potential over the period 1981– 2020 and in RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The results show that a reanalysis of ERA5 provides the closest maximum and minimum values to the observed data. The validation results of the maximum and minimum temperature data from the ERA5 model showed values closer to the observed data at all points. The results of the potential yield of the maize crop, simulated by the model, are close to the research field data provided by IIAM. The values of the average estimated potential productivity was 4.88 tons/ha and the average productivity of the IIAM research field was 4.71 tons/ha, thus demonstrating that the model simulates approximately the field data of search. The real productivity in the period under analysis is 0.72 tons/ha, corresponding to 85% lower than the potential productivity estimated by the model. In scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5, it may cause a reduction of more than 33% in the potential yield of the maize crop. With the application of the technological effect in both scenarios, the potential productivity will be reduced, increased or no loss. Keywords: Climate Change. Agricultural Modelling. Maize. ERA5. CMIP5