Power system planning: an integrated techno-economic and portfolio approach

• Ano de defesa: 2024
• Autor(a) principal: Durigon, Angelo Lucio Freitas
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa; Economia Aplicada
• Palavras-chave em Português: Energia elétrica - Planejamento; Combustíveis - Preços; Gerenciamento de portfólio; Combustíveis fósseis; Avaliação de riscos; ECONOMIA APLICADA
• Link de acesso: https://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/32763; https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2024.464

The electricity sector can be afflicted with different types of risk, in particular fuel price fluctuations can highly impact the price of electricity. The most common tools used in power planning apply a minimum cost approach to it in order to find an appropriate electricity matrix. These tend to ignore risk what could lead to miscalculations on the expected cost of electricity production. In this work we implemented two methods, economic dispatch and CVaR minimization, to address risk and formulate a suitable portfolio for the Brazilian electricity matrix. We found that to minimize the risk in case of extreme fuel price events, our model allocated the Brazilian electricity expansion primarily in wind and biomass energy. This largely coincides with other works that analyze this problem from other perspectives. Our results show that it is possible to minimize risk while at the same time following green energy initiatives that are needed in modern day electricity planning. Keywords: Portfolio Theory. Optimization. CVaR. Economic Dispatch. Electric Energy. Fossil Fuels. Electricity sector. Risk.