Essays on commodities and economic uncertainty
| Ano de defesa: | 2024 |
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| Autor(a) principal: | |
| Orientador(a): | |
| Banca de defesa: | |
| Tipo de documento: | Tese |
| Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Federal de Viçosa
Economia Aplicada |
| Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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| Departamento: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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| País: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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| Palavras-chave em Português: | |
| Link de acesso: | https://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/32989 https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2024.627 |
Resumo: | Commodities play a pivotal role in global trade, encompassing raw materials and agricultural products vital for economic growth and stability. This dissertation investigates the intricate relationship between commodities and economic uncertainty, exploring how these factors interact and influence economic dynamics. Drawing on a multidisciplinary framework, this study encompasses two independent papers that collectively contribute to the understanding of commodity markets and economic uncertainty. The first paper examines the impact of commodity exports on institutional quality across a range of developing and advanced economies from 1997 to 2022. Using panel data analysis and China's accession to the World Trade Organization as a natural experiment, the study reveals a significant negative causal relationship between commodity exports and institutional development. This finding underscores the adverse effect of commodity wealth on institutional effectiveness, highlighting the complexities of economic governance in resource-dependent nations. In the second paper, the focus shifts to the interactions between commodity futures (specifically live cattle and soybeans) and the stock market in Brazil from January 2014 to July 2023. Through time-series analysis, we investigate the influence of policy changes on commodity-stock dynamic correlations. We do not observe an economically significant effect of economic uncertainty originated in Brazil and abroad on the time-varying interactions between commodity and stock markets in Brazil. Overall, this dissertation contributes valuable insights into the nexus of commodities and economic uncertainty, shedding light on their complex interplay and implications for economic stability. By elucidating these relationships, this study offers practical guidance for policymakers, investors, and stakeholders, facilitating informed decision-making and enhancing risk management practices in an increasingly volatile global economy. Keywords: Institutions. Agricultural Exports. Commodity Futures. Uncertainty. |