Estudo do consumo e do número de consumidores de energia elétrica do RS por meio de componentes principais e modelos de previsão

• Ano de defesa: 2011
• Autor(a) principal: Souza, Francisca Mendonça
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Santa Maria; BR; Engenharia de Produção; UFSM; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção
• Palavras-chave em Português: Previsão; ARIMA; ARCH; Componentes principais; Energia elétrica; Forecasting; Principal components; Electrical energy; CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO
• Link de acesso: http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/8179

The economic growth of the state of Rio Grande do Sul as well as the rest of the country is closely connected with the distribution and power generation. Thus for the state's energy system does not collapse (shortage / surplus) in steps of generation and supply, it is necessary to study the distribution of energy generated and the number of consumers. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine a reference variable by means of principal component analysis in order to analyze the overall behavior of consumption and consumers in MWh of electricity in the Rio Grande do Sul, by means of linear models of forecast (ARIMA) and nonlinear (ARCH). The analysis refers to the number of consumers and to the consumption of electrical energy to the RS, conducted by the three largest electricity distributors, including AES-Sul, CEEE and GER from January 1998 to December 2009. The mathematical models for the variables studied are able to model satisfactorily the data, enabling an analysis of their behavior, able to monitor and determine the movement of the series under study as a whole, providing management measures, both companies supply distributor as the number of customers of each company, allowing an analysis on the stability of the production process.