Planejamento de capacidade com incerteza na demanda em unidades de distribuição de energia elétrica

• Ano de defesa: 2019
• Autor(a) principal: Silva, Guilherme de Oliveira da
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Santa Maria; Brasil; Engenharia de Produção; UFSM; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção; Centro de Tecnologia
• Palavras-chave em Português: Distribuição de energia elétrica; Planejamento de capacidade; Pesquisa operacional; Incerteza de demanda; Gestão de serviços; Electric power distribution; Capacity planning; Operational research; Demand uncertainty; Service management; CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO
• Link de acesso: http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/20237

The service management system performance is closely related to the operational success. When considering electric power distribution systems, regulatory polices impose penalties and minimum service levels which demand a carefully observation on the available capacity. This work proposes a capacity planning approach involving uncertain demand by applying a stochastic linear programming model, in such a way that the maximum capacity is minimized. First, a probability distribution models are fitted to historical data to be further applied in random number generation, considering a large number of scenarios. From these numbers, a maximum capacity is obtained by using a deterministic linear programming model, specifically developed to include order deadlines and uncertain demand. Numerical results demonstrate how the proposed approach is suitable not only to have the final capacity level but also to study the variation on the initial inventory and its corresponding effect on the maximum capacity obtained.