Padrões de anomalias da temperatura da superfície dos Oceanos Pacífico e Atlântico associados à Radiação de Onda Longa na América do Sul e à precipitação no Brasil.

Detalhes bibliográficos
Ano de defesa: 2009
Autor(a) principal: Reinke, Guilherme Lauxe
Orientador(a): Marques, Julio Renato
Banca de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
Idioma: por
Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Pelotas
Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Pós-Graduação em Meteorologia
Departamento: Meteorologia
País: BR
Palavras-chave em Português:
Palavras-chave em Inglês:
Área do conhecimento CNPq:
Link de acesso: https://guaiaca.ufpel.edu.br/handle/123456789/2191
Resumo: The main objective of the study was to obtain the relation between Pacific and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies in South America (SA) and, moreover, evaluate the relationship of rainfall in Brazil to SST. Data from reanalysis of SST and OLR of the NCEP/NCAR were used, between the months of October and March of the period from 1982 to 2007, which was applied the statistical technique of Principal Components (PC), allowing the study of the correlation between the two variables. Data of precipitation of 691 stations in Brazil, obtained from the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) and Fundação Estadual de Pesquisa Agropecuária (FEPAGRO), were correlated with the scores of the SST and were used to prepare the rainfall climatology in the country, which enabled the understanding of the rainfall regime in spring and summer. Finally, a model was developed to forecast of the rainfall in Brazil with two months for advance, between December and March, using as predictors the first five scores of the SST. The correlations between the PC1 of the SST and the PC1 of the OLR shown to be significants at 1%, where the PC1 of SST is related with the ENSO pattern, showing in October: desintensification or intensification of convection in central and southern of Argentina; November: opposite pattern of OLR anomalies between south of Brazil and the area of activity of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ); January: reduction or increase of convection in the northwestern of SA; December, February and March: intensification or desintensification of convection associated with the Bolivian High, and also in north of the North and Northeast Regions of Brazil. Moreover, in all months of the study, the PC2 of the SST showed the indication of a dipole pattern between the Central and Equatorial Atlantic adjacent to the northeastern coast of Brazil, and South Atlantic, in middle latitudes. In October, November and March, OLR anomalies areas associated with a pattern of more oceanic SACZ seem to be directly related to a strong gradient of SST anomalies, with positive anomalies in the northeast coast of Brazil and negative anomalies on the south-southeast coast of the country. When it was of the SST with the rainfall in Brazil, it was found in the months of November, December and January, similar patterns seen in the correlations between the SST and OLR. In the four months in which the model was applied to predict the rainfall, it was noted that South and Northeast regions of Brazil have the best potential for forecasting.