Avaliação da importância do preço do petróleo para a formação de preço das commodities agropecuárias no estado de Mato Grosso

• Ano de defesa: 2018
• Autor(a) principal: Akpohe, Marcel
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso; Brasil; Faculdade de Economia (FE); UFMT CUC - Cuiabá; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia
• Palavras-chave em Português: Commodities; Formação de preços; Auto-regressão vetorial (VAR); CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA; Price formation; Vector auto-regression (VAR)
• Link de acesso: http://ri.ufmt.br/handle/1/3100

The objective of this study is to analyze the relative importance of international and national oil prices on the price formation of agricultural commodities in the State of Mato Grosso from June 2013 to September 2016 with daily data periodicity for each of the commodities: maize, fat ox, cotton and soybean. As a specific objective, it is sought to analyze the proportions of national and international oil prices in the explanation of the variance of the price of these agricultural commodities in Mato Grosso. The justification for this study lies in the context of the fact that the commodity market is a very important market for the Brazilian economy and in particular for Mato Grosso, because the State has a large representation in the production and export of the cotton, maize, and soybean, being a market that plays an important role in the composition of the Brazilian GDP and Mato Grosso, and is also responsible for a large part of the inflow of foreign currency into Brazil's trade balance. The hypothesis assumed is that the national price of petroleum would better explain the price formation of the main agricultural commodities in Mato Grosso than the international price because there is internal control in the price of petroleum. To achieve the proposed goal, the vector autoregression model (VAR) was used. The results showed that the price of petroleum has very little impact on the price formation of the products analyzed and that, despite the weak impact, the international price of petroleum registered a larger share in the formation of product prices, when compared to the share of the national petroleum price, thus rejecting the hypothesis