Análise de cenários de precipitação dos modelos ETA e HadrM3P (PRECIS) em Mato Grosso

• Ano de defesa: 2012
• Autor(a) principal: Santos, Adriano Sebastião Lucas
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso; Brasil; Instituto de Ciências Humanas e Sociais (ICHS); UFMT CUC - Cuiabá; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia
• Palavras-chave em Português: Mato Grosso; Validação; Cenários; Precipitação; Séries históricas; CNPQ::CIENCIAS HUMANAS::GEOGRAFIA; Validation; Scenarios; Rainfall; Time series
• Link de acesso: http://ri.ufmt.br/handle/1/1278

Usually the grids points generated by Regional Climate Models are a refinement of grids points globais.A climate models of the ways to quantify the errors inherent in the processes of modeling and refinement also present in the regional climate scenarios for the validation is based on comparisons with series históricas.O present work had as objective the analysis of monthly precipitation scenarios of climate models and regional ETA CCS HadRM3P (PRECIS) for Mato Grosso. For validation of baseline scenarios for the period 1960 to 1990 the range was set from 1974 to 1990, coinciding with the historical series. We used historical series in the form of monthly and annual averages of the set of observations of 53 rainfall stations located in the southern portion of Mato Grosso. When comparing the means of the series observed with the simulated scenarios was found higher incidence of errors by underestimation of baseline scenarios for both models. Expected changes for the period were analyzed from the subtraction of baseline scenarios A2 scenario. These pessimistic scenarios with high emissions are part of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), the - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which describe global climate change expected between 2070 to 2100 as a response to economic, social and heterogeneous technology in which the interactions will be more local than global. The scenarios obtained by the two models predicted decrease in precipitation for almost all regions, both in the dry and wet season, there are exceptions only for certain quarters. In the wet season, the scenarios A2 ETA model predicted decrease in precipitation indicated by the triple of model scenarios HadRM3P. In the dry season, the scenarios A2 model ETA showed twice the reduction in rainfall than predicted by the model HadRM3P. The mean baseline model scenarios ETA CCS, compared to HadRM3P model (PRECIS), have greater capacity to produce grids of points with pixels with a degree of spatial correlation similar to those produced by time series. Thus precipitation changes provided by the scenarios A2 are less drastic in the simulation model HadRM3P (PRECIS) compared with the scenarios simulated ETA CCS.