Análise de viabilidade econômica de um investimento em geração solar em Campo Grande – MS: aplicação da teoria de opções reais

• Ano de defesa: 2021
• Autor(a) principal: Pivem, Tatiani
• Orientador(a): Leme, Sandro Petry Laureano
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Fundação Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Energia Solar Fotovoltaica; Análise de Investimentos; Sistemas de Minigeração; Valor Presente Líquido (VPL); Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR); Photovoltaic Solar Energy; Investment Analysis; Mini-generation Systems; Net Present Value (NPV); Real Options Theory (ROT)
• Link de acesso: https://repositorio.ufms.br/handle/123456789/4633

The investments price in solar energy market is an important factor in the decision to make investments in the sector. The aim of this work is to map the technical requirements of a mini-generation case study in Campo Grande – MS, to develop a computational model for the application of the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) algorithm. This computational model was applied in the aforementioned case study, in order to obtain the necessary inputs (parameters) for the economic evaluation. The Brownian Geometric model was used to generate 10 random paths for each listed uncertainty scenario, and the vector paths with the highest cost and/or revenue value, and the lowest cost and/or revenue value were chosen. This choice was made to map the limits present in the analysis and price the option cost of each scenario. Traditional and expanded NPV (TOR) analyzes were then performed. The option to wait in a period of time shorter than the project's payback was applied. The data were taken in a period referring to a tariff review cycle, since this moment is decisive for the rules to be applied in the construction of the tariff. The main results indicate that through the research of costs in the region of Campo Grande – MS, the lowest investment value for a 479 kW solar photovoltaic mini-generation plant is R$ 1,955,044. For the scenario without uncertainty, the 10-year NPV is negative in the order of -535,721.11. The work shows that considering uncertainties in the main project costs, which refers to the cost of inverters and solar panels, the traditional NPV indicates that the investment should be abandoned. But with the analysis of the NPV extended through the application of Real Options Theory, it is recommended not to abandon the option of investing in a decision window of 1 year. Flexible NPVs indicate values of 268,470 with the inverter cost uncertainty scenario, 563,205 with the panel cost uncertainty scenario and 1,356,996 with the tariff uncertainty scenario. The present work brings as its main contribution the analysis of the application of TOR in a case study and how the mapping of uncertainties can provide subsidies for managerial decisions. Keywords: solar energy, pricing, investment, economic valuation, real options.