Choques externos e de incerteza local: uma análise nos ciclos econômicos estaduais
Ano de defesa: | 2018 |
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Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
UFMG |
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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Departamento: |
Não Informado pela instituição
|
País: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Link de acesso: | http://hdl.handle.net/1843/FACE-B7JG9T |
Resumo: | This work analyzed impacts of national uncertainty shocks on the macroeconomics of the Brazilian state level (country risk shock) and also of the following international shocks: demand, aggregate supply (commodities price) and global financial uncertainty. The analysis was performed for three regional variables: formal employment level, ICMS and IBCR (as proxy to GDP). For the majority of the states, the impulse response function of those variables behaves in line with the national GDP response. Nevertheless, results suggest there are asymmetries on the magnitude of the cumulative responses of Brazilian states. On average, those states with higher participation on industrial GDP were more sensitive to the shocks. The work results were obtained by applying the Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (BSVAR) with block exogeneity. |