Choques externos e de incerteza local: uma análise nos ciclos econômicos estaduais

• Ano de defesa: 2018
• Autor(a) principal: Aline Mello de Paula
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: Choques Externos; Economia Regional; Incerteza; Preço de commodity; SVAR Bayesiano; Risco-país; Ciclos econômicos
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/FACE-B7JG9T

This work analyzed impacts of national uncertainty shocks on the macroeconomics of the Brazilian state level (country risk shock) and also of the following international shocks: demand, aggregate supply (commodities price) and global financial uncertainty. The analysis was performed for three regional variables: formal employment level, ICMS and IBCR (as proxy to GDP). For the majority of the states, the impulse response function of those variables behaves in line with the national GDP response. Nevertheless, results suggest there are asymmetries on the magnitude of the cumulative responses of Brazilian states. On average, those states with higher participation on industrial GDP were more sensitive to the shocks. The work results were obtained by applying the Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (BSVAR) with block exogeneity.