Crescimento econômico a partir da articulação entre retornos crescentes de escala, inovação tecnológica e especialização produtiva

• Ano de defesa: 2013
• Autor(a) principal: Francisco Horacio Pereira de Oliveira
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: Crescentes de escala; Pauta de exportações; Crescimento econômico; Hiato tecnológico; Retornos; Retornos crescentes de especialização; Economia; Desenvolvimento econômico
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/BUBD-9GHHRG

The main goal of this thesis is to propose an analytical model from which emerges a new essential parameter to explain growth rate behavior, named specialization returns to scale. This parameter mediates the product behavior and the exportation roll of the countries, based on the hypothesis that economic growth affects positively the share, in the countries exportation roll, of the technology intensive goods production (UNCTAD, 2002), compared to commodities and natural resources intensive goods. Build on three principal models Setterfield, 1997; Dosi, Pavitt, Soete, 1990; Porcile, Cimoli, 2007 , this thesis synthetizes the main causality relationships in the process of economic growth as described in kaldorian, neoschumpeterian and cepaline literature -, highlighting possible circle causation relationships that can happen between the main variables and their respective effects for the final trajectory of the product, over time. The second goal is to estimate the main parameters proposed by the theoretical model, for Brazilian economy, especially the parameter related to increasing returns to specialization. The analyses will cover the period from the first trimester of 1989 until the fourth trimester of 2012, counting 96 observations for the following variables: industrial product, exportations, technological gap, specialization indexes of the exportation roll. The statistical methodology used is the cointegrated temporal series. The results of the thesis are estimated parameters for the relationships between those series. The estimated parameters indicate that the increasing returns to specialization are statistically expressive and significant, confirming the predictions of the theoretical model. However, the value of the increasing returns to specialization diminishes considerably when its estimative considers the effect of the product growth for the increase specifically in the medium and high technology intensive production in the Brazilian exportation roll. This result suggests that, in despite of the importance of the effects caused by the economic growth, the technology catching up process - resulted from a mature innovation system (Albuquerque, 1999) and from the entrance in new technological paradigms of the global economy in their respective initial phases is still the best way to sophisticate Brazilian exportation roll.