Population and spatial dynamics forecasts from ecophysiological individual-based models for Aedes

• Ano de defesa: 2016
• Autor(a) principal: Oliveira, Carlos Eduardo Klein de
• Orientador(a): Marco Júnior, Paulo De
• Banca de defesa: Marco Júnior, Paulo de, Silva, Daniel de Brito Candido da, Giacomini, Henrique Corrêa
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Goiás
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Evolução (ICB)
• Departamento: Instituto de Ciências Biológicas - ICB (RG)
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Dinâmica populacional; Mudanças climáticas
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Population dynamics; Aedes; Climate change
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CIENCIAS BIOLOGICAS::ECOLOGIA
• Link de acesso: http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/9339

This dissertation is structured in two chapters. Our main goals are to predict population and geographic patterns for the species A. aegypti (Linnaeus) and A. albopictus (Skuse), important disease spreading mosquitoes. The features we want to predict are population dynamics and the geographic distribution of those species, with special concern on the effect of climate change on both of them. The first chapter focuses on exploring an individual-based population model from a population ecology approach, focusing on how the model predicts the seasonality, abundance, and age structure of populations, besides the dynamics of the entire population. The second chapter focuses on spatial forecasts, as the main objective is to predict the present and future geographic distribution of the species with correlative models and the model we explored in the first chapter.