Previsão de demanda em registros de preços : análise do Departamento de Gestão de Restaurantes da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo

• Ano de defesa: 2015
• Autor(a) principal: Veiga, Hallison Golffetto da
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo; BR; Mestrado Profissional em Gestão Pública; Centro de Ciências Jurídicas e Econômicas; UFES; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Gestão Pública
• Palavras-chave em Português: Processo de contratação pública; Sistema de registro de preços; Planejamento; Previsão de demanda; Indicador; Universidades e faculdades - Planejamento; Universidades e faculdades - Indicadores; Demanda (teoria econômica); Compras (Serviço público); Administração Pública; 35
• Link de acesso: http://repositorio.ufes.br/handle/10/2525

Despite the price record is a system for procurement of goods and services, under Brazilian law and widely used by government agencies of the country, where the government has a legal obligation to hire the registered item, it is essential that the forecast demand items to be registered to be baptized in methodological objective criteria in the planning stage, and with it, the chances of occurrence of undersized and oversized estimates tend to decrease. Based on this finding, the central purpose of the study is to verify that the estimated prices records reflect the real need of supply, with reference to the Department of Restaurant Management (DGR) of the Federal University of Espírito Santo (UFES). We conducted a case study, focusing on records consumer product prices directly used in the preparation of meals at university restaurants (foodstuff, meat and meat products, and fresh produce). Interviews were conducted with the nutritionists responsible for ordering the purchase of objects studied in DGR, totaling three interviews. In addition, it proceeded to the analysis of the components of the sample price records, that is, price records of the studied objects, made between 2009 and 2014, whose term has expired. Thus, were studied 27 records prices. Analysis of these was governed by proposing an indicator and a scale for interpretation of the indicator, the final product of this work. The results show the need for requesting the DGR revise the parameters of demand forecasts of the studied objects, when drafting the terms of reference, as the indicator proposed portrayed the following fact: the low forecast accuracy and high forecast error. Thus, the study suggests the adoption of the final product by the DGR, as follow-up mechanism and control demand forecast record prices, a tool that will contribute to the gradual improvement of the planning of the recruitment department (quantitative aspect)