Detalhes bibliográficos
| Ano de defesa: |
2012 |
| Autor(a) principal: |
Modro, Wilton Moisés
 |
| Orientador(a): |
Santos, José Odálio dos |
| Banca de defesa: |
Não Informado pela instituição |
| Tipo de documento: |
Dissertação
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| Tipo de acesso: |
Acesso aberto |
| Idioma: |
por |
| Instituição de defesa: |
Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo
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| Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa de Estudos Pós-Graduados em Administração
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| Departamento: |
Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contábeis e Atuariais
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| País: |
BR
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| Palavras-chave em Português: |
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| Palavras-chave em Inglês: |
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| Área do conhecimento CNPq: |
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| Link de acesso: |
https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/1038
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Resumo: |
The purpose of this study was to analyze if the main financial indicators, value metrics and economic factors are relevant to explaining the performance of common shares return of the three largest Brazilian banks, Banco do Brasil, Banco Itau and Banco Bradesco, during the period between 2001 and 2010. Such rationale begins with the assumption, based on the modern theory of finance, that certain factors may contribute to the explanation of stock return behavior. Accordingly, were selected the top accounting indicators and value metrics exposed in the studies and in finance literature and, additionally, the top economic factors that could be related to stock return. Considering the growing importance of the Brazilian banking sector and the lack of studies focused on companies in this sector, it was decided to apply the selected indicators and metrics to these key Brazilian banks, which together accounted, at the end of 2010, for about half of the performance of the banking sector in the country. Through an empirical-descriptive study, based on documentary research, having the financial statements and the stock market performance of the three selected banks as the main sources of data, it was verified which independent variables showed positive correlation and explanatory power on the stock return of the following period of these banks. The results obtained by correlation analysis and multiple regressions, applied to the accumulated variation of common shares return and the 26 (twenty six) independent variables studied, showed the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) as the main explanatory variable statistically significant to common shares return, with r2 of 77.7% (Banco do Brasil), 69.8% (Banco Itaú) and 64.3% (Banco Bradesco). Other variables with significant explanatory power, although smaller, were the index of operational efficiency (16.5%) for Banco Itau and the ratio loans/deposits (7.6%) and inflation (6.7%) for Banco Bradesco. These results demonstrate the importance of the P/E ratio, which shows the investors expectation about the generation of future cash flows by companies and, therefore, it is expected to be associated with stock returns. Some limitations of this study, however, should be taken into consideration, especially regarding the use of accounting data, the events occurred during the period of analysis (accounting changes, mergers and acquisitions, subprime crisis, etc..), and the calculations and results of value metrics, since several studies indicate value metrics, specifically the EVA®, as more closely related to the return or the market price of the shares |
