Detalhes bibliográficos
| Ano de defesa: |
2008 |
| Autor(a) principal: |
Albarello, Elias Barquete
 |
| Orientador(a): |
Joao, Belmiro do Nascimento |
| Banca de defesa: |
Não Informado pela instituição |
| Tipo de documento: |
Dissertação
|
| Tipo de acesso: |
Acesso aberto |
| Idioma: |
por |
| Instituição de defesa: |
Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo
|
| Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa de Estudos Pós-Graduados em Administração
|
| Departamento: |
Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contábeis e Atuariais
|
| País: |
BR
|
| Palavras-chave em Português: |
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| Palavras-chave em Inglês: |
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| Área do conhecimento CNPq: |
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| Link de acesso: |
https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/1300
|
Resumo: |
In the context of the new model of the electric sector, the market projection has became a important tool for the sectorial planning and necessary in reason of the complexity of the national energy system, such in supply side and demand side. The social-economic and politic-institutional changes that will occur in the next decades allow to affirm, with reasonable security, that the future evolution of the energy demand, in particular of the electricity, will hardly follow the standards of the past, having to register differentiated movements duo to of the dynamic of the variable that determine its performance. In fact, the future is uncertain and it cannot be foreseen with exactness and security, being in the truth the result of discontinuities, ruptures and inflections of the standard past, highly influenced for new facts of the future and fruit of the social construction. Objectifying to analyze the importance of the construction of scenarios for the projection of electric energy market, a case study of the biggest electric energy distribution company of the country, AES Eletropaulo, was developed, in which it can verify the necessity of the use of scenario construction models, in reason of the results of the use of traditional methodologies, that might impact in the contract level of energy, conditioned by macroeconomic, social, institutional, ambient and technological factors, that present a relation of interdependence between itself, configuring an extensive net of mutual influences |
