Análise da contribuição do modelo KMV para previsão de default de empresas nacionais de grande porte

Detalhes bibliográficos
Ano de defesa: 2011
Autor(a) principal: Lamberti, José Renato de Paula lattes
Orientador(a): Santos, José Odálio dos
Banca de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
Idioma: por
Instituição de defesa: Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo
Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Estudos Pós-Graduados em Administração
Departamento: Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contábeis e Atuariais
País: BR
Palavras-chave em Português:
KMV
Palavras-chave em Inglês:
Área do conhecimento CNPq:
Link de acesso: https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/991
Resumo: Evaluating the risk of default by a company became an indispensable object when making the decision to grant to the financial credit institutions. Taking in account the current record of credit growth, the strategic role of risk management for financial institutions, the constant innovations in the process of detection risk and the large volume of academic researches related to management models for credit risk, because of this, it was considered the appropriate occasion for the development of this dissertation. The present work aims to confront the traditional analysis of risk based on accounting ratios and the results of KMV model to determine the probability of default of publicly traded companies. The dissertation will address the theoretical review of the traditional analysis of credit risk and the model of KWN (based on the theory of Black and Scholes 1973 and Merton, 1974). The next step will apply the accounting ratios and the KMV model, calculating the probability of default of the building sample. Therefore, we will discuss the limitations of the KMV model and some recommendations in order to improve management of credit