Estudo da variabilidade de custos em orçamentos de obras residenciais utilizando o método de Monte Carlo

Detalhes bibliográficos
Ano de defesa: 2020
Autor(a) principal: Monteiro, Agatha Martins
Orientador(a): Vanalle, Rosangela Maria
Banca de defesa: Vanalle, Rosangela Maria, Vieira Junior, Milton, Oliveira Neto, Geraldo Cardoso de
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
Idioma: por
Instituição de defesa: Universidade Nove de Julho
Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Pós-Graduação de Mestrado e Doutorado em Engenharia de Produção
Departamento: Engenharia
País: Brasil
Palavras-chave em Português:
Palavras-chave em Inglês:
Área do conhecimento CNPq:
Link de acesso: http://bibliotecatede.uninove.br/handle/tede/2197
Resumo: In the middle of the transformations of the world industry, with advances in information technologies, software for calculations and projects, improvements in the quality control of materials, etc., we see that the Brazilian construction industry still executes processes of the last century. In the planning of costs and budget of works, there were also no changes. Analysts use spreadsheet editors to assemble their compositions, prepare their surveys, quotations, assemble unit price compositions without worrying too much about the quality of that information. In civil construction, it is not common to return work to the budget and planning team, whether or not what is being budgeted is meeting the work. This work aims to understand and update the knowledge on calculating the variability of costs in budgets by means of graphs of Monte Carlo simulation in costs of residential works of economic standard in Greater São Paulo, through the methodology of a case study a work in a construction company. Presenting in the results, analysis of the spreadsheets comparing the results of the simulations x actual realized values of the work, thus being able to verify the variability of costs and the validation of the Monte Carlo method as a tool for analyzing risks and uncertainties for decision making regarding of construction costs.