A Methodology to forecast air transportation demand with alternative econometric models

• Ano de defesa: 2012
• Autor(a) principal: Diego Javier Gonzales Vega
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Instituição de defesa: Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica
• Palavras-chave em Português: Transporte de passageiros; Demanda (Economia); Previsão; Metodologia; Análise de séries temporais; Transporte aéreo; Brasil; Transportes
• Link de acesso: http://www.bd.bibl.ita.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=2092

This thesis presents a methodology using a portfolio of time-series models, from conventional ARMA to a regime-changing framework. The objective is to develop an air transportation demand modeling to inspect potential structural breaks in the Brazilian market, due to solve underlying issues of new demand creation. Out-of-sample forecasting is used to generate comparative metrics aiming at both selection and validation of what we call a "champion model". Results indicate better performance of more complex models such as the fractionally integrated and the Markov-switching models. Ex ante knowledge of the interaction of structural breaks and unit root can prove useful in the modeling analysis. The demand forecast of the champion model is in line with the recent accelerated growth of the Brazilian air transportation market, roughly 7% per year.