Risky business: social media metrics and political risk analysis

• Ano de defesa: 2015
• Autor(a) principal: Nelson, Laura Kathleen
• Orientador(a): Pacheco, Julia Alice Sophia von Maltzan
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Palavras-chave em Português: Big data; Political risk analysis; Country risk; Emerging markets; Social media
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13626

Quantifying country risk – and in particular, political risk – poses great difficulties for business, institutions, and investors alike. As economic indicators are updated far less frequently than Facebook feeds, it can be challenging for political risk analysts to understand, and more importantly measure, what is taking place in real time on the ground. However, with the growing availability of big data from social media platforms such as Twitter, now is an opportune moment to examine the types of social media metrics that are available and the limitations to applying them to country risk analysis, particularly during episodes of political upheaval. This study, using the qualitative method of bibliographical research, identifies the current landscape of data available from Twitter, analyzes the current and potential methods of analysis, and discusses their possible application to the field of political risk analysis. After a thorough review of the field to date, and given the expected near- to medium-term technological advancements, this study concludes that despite obstacles like the cost of data storage, limitations of real-time analysis, and the potential for data manipulation, the potential benefits of the application of social media metrics to the field of political risk analysis, particularly for structured-qualitative and quantitative models, outweigh the challenges.