Da lei de Wagner no Brasil um estudo acerca da validade atual e da aplicaÃÃo

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Raimundo Ivan Vieira
Publication Date: 2014
Format: Master thesis
Language: por
Source: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
Download full: http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=13576
Summary: The objective of this work is to identify whether the Wagner Law, which refers to the effect of public spending on economic growth can be observed for the Brazilian reality. According to Wagner, the public sector is able to intervene in the economy to alter its growth trajectory, with such a process promoted by higher expenses. To test the hypothesis Wagner information was collected on the amount of government spending and the Brazilian production between 1909 and 2012, extracted from IPEADATA. The processing of information in order to reproduce the arguments that led to the completion of the verification or not the Wagner Law was based on techniques of time series. The model of Vector Autoregressive (VAR), the analysis of Granger and Cointegration test were used. Still, the tests of Dickey - Fuller and Phillip - Perron test for identification to check the type of behavior that characterizes the best series of public spending and growth were used. The results highlight that both variables have decided not stationary in level, you characterize as well as a process I(1). The impulse response functions showed a positive relationship not spending towards growth and a low explanatory power of the fluctuations of the latter after the first 20 periods, respectively. The test of Granger pointed out that there is a unidirectional relationship between public spending and growth, with the same expenditure towards growth - ie, only growth can affect the spending behavior in the Granger sense. Finally, the cointegration analysis did find arguments in favor of a long-term relationship for the series in question.
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spelling info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisDa lei de Wagner no Brasil um estudo acerca da validade atual e da aplicaÃÃo Wagner's law in Brazil a study on the current validity and applying2014-02-19FabrÃcio Carneiro Linhares45504849349http://lattes.cnpq.br/8577355400988841Ricardo Brito Soares00000000003http://lattes.cnpq.br/2439089390333822Carlos Eduardo dos Santos Marino00000000106http://lattes.cnpq.br/292567627572713938227142320Raimundo Ivan VieiraUniversidade Federal do CearÃPrograma de PÃs-GraduaÃÃo em Economia - CAENUFCBRgasto crescimento econÃmico VAR CointegraÃÃo e Grangerspending economic growth VAR Cointegration and GrangerCIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADASThe objective of this work is to identify whether the Wagner Law, which refers to the effect of public spending on economic growth can be observed for the Brazilian reality. According to Wagner, the public sector is able to intervene in the economy to alter its growth trajectory, with such a process promoted by higher expenses. To test the hypothesis Wagner information was collected on the amount of government spending and the Brazilian production between 1909 and 2012, extracted from IPEADATA. The processing of information in order to reproduce the arguments that led to the completion of the verification or not the Wagner Law was based on techniques of time series. The model of Vector Autoregressive (VAR), the analysis of Granger and Cointegration test were used. Still, the tests of Dickey - Fuller and Phillip - Perron test for identification to check the type of behavior that characterizes the best series of public spending and growth were used. The results highlight that both variables have decided not stationary in level, you characterize as well as a process I(1). The impulse response functions showed a positive relationship not spending towards growth and a low explanatory power of the fluctuations of the latter after the first 20 periods, respectively. The test of Granger pointed out that there is a unidirectional relationship between public spending and growth, with the same expenditure towards growth - ie, only growth can affect the spending behavior in the Granger sense. Finally, the cointegration analysis did find arguments in favor of a long-term relationship for the series in question.O objetivo deste trabalho à identificar se a lei de Wagner, que se remete ao efeito dos gastos pÃblicos sobre o crescimento econÃmico, pode ser observada para a realidade brasileira. Segundo Wagner, o setor pÃblico à capaz de intervir na economia de modo a alterar sua trajetÃria de crescimento, sendo tal processo promovido pela elevaÃÃo das despesas. Para testar a hipÃtese de Wagner foram coletadas informaÃÃes sobre o montante de gastos governamentais e sobre a produÃÃo brasileira entre 1909 e 2012, extraÃdas do IPEADATA. O processamento das informaÃÃes de modo a reproduzir argumentos que levaram a conclusÃo sobre a verificaÃÃo ou nÃo da lei de Wagner foram baseado em tÃcnicas de sÃries temporais. Foram utilizados o modelo de Vetores Auto-Regressivos (VAR), a anÃlise de causalidade de Granger e o teste de CointegraÃÃo. Ainda, foram utilizados os testes de Dickey-Fuller Aumentado e o teste de Phillip-Perron para identificaÃÃo para verificaÃÃo do tipo de comportamento que melhor caracteriza as sÃries do gasto pÃblico e do crescimento. Os resultados destacam que ambas as variÃveis apresentam-se de forma nÃo estacionÃria em nÃvel, caracterizas, assim, como um processo I(1). As funÃÃes de impulso respostas evidenciaram uma relaÃÃo nÃo positiva do gasto para com o crescimento e um baixo poder de explicaÃÃo das flutuaÃÃes desta Ãltima pela primeira apÃs 20 perÃodos, respectivamente. O teste de Granger destacou que existe uma relaÃÃo unidirecional entre gasto pÃblico e crescimento, sendo a mesmo no sentido crescimento-gasto, ou seja, somente o crescimento à capaz de afetar o comportamento dos gastos no sentido de Granger. Por fim, a anÃlise de cointegraÃÃo encontrou argumentos em favor de uma relaÃÃo de longo prazo para as sÃries em questÃo.nÃo hÃhttp://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=13576application/pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessporreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFCinstname:Universidade Federal do Cearáinstacron:UFC2019-01-21T11:26:49Zmail@mail.com -
dc.title.pt.fl_str_mv Da lei de Wagner no Brasil um estudo acerca da validade atual e da aplicaÃÃo
dc.title.alternative.en.fl_str_mv Wagner's law in Brazil a study on the current validity and applying
title Da lei de Wagner no Brasil um estudo acerca da validade atual e da aplicaÃÃo
spellingShingle Da lei de Wagner no Brasil um estudo acerca da validade atual e da aplicaÃÃo
Raimundo Ivan Vieira
gasto
crescimento econÃmico
VAR
CointegraÃÃo e Granger
spending
economic growth
VAR
Cointegration and Granger
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS
title_short Da lei de Wagner no Brasil um estudo acerca da validade atual e da aplicaÃÃo
title_full Da lei de Wagner no Brasil um estudo acerca da validade atual e da aplicaÃÃo
title_fullStr Da lei de Wagner no Brasil um estudo acerca da validade atual e da aplicaÃÃo
title_full_unstemmed Da lei de Wagner no Brasil um estudo acerca da validade atual e da aplicaÃÃo
title_sort Da lei de Wagner no Brasil um estudo acerca da validade atual e da aplicaÃÃo
author Raimundo Ivan Vieira
author_facet Raimundo Ivan Vieira
author_role author
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv FabrÃcio Carneiro Linhares
dc.contributor.advisor1ID.fl_str_mv 45504849349
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/8577355400988841
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Ricardo Brito Soares
dc.contributor.referee1ID.fl_str_mv 00000000003
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/2439089390333822
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Carlos Eduardo dos Santos Marino
dc.contributor.referee2ID.fl_str_mv 00000000106
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/2925676275727139
dc.contributor.authorID.fl_str_mv 38227142320
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Raimundo Ivan Vieira
contributor_str_mv FabrÃcio Carneiro Linhares
Ricardo Brito Soares
Carlos Eduardo dos Santos Marino
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv gasto
crescimento econÃmico
VAR
CointegraÃÃo e Granger
topic gasto
crescimento econÃmico
VAR
CointegraÃÃo e Granger
spending
economic growth
VAR
Cointegration and Granger
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv spending
economic growth
VAR
Cointegration and Granger
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS
dc.description.sponsorship.fl_txt_mv nÃo hÃ
dc.description.abstract.por.fl_txt_mv The objective of this work is to identify whether the Wagner Law, which refers to the effect of public spending on economic growth can be observed for the Brazilian reality. According to Wagner, the public sector is able to intervene in the economy to alter its growth trajectory, with such a process promoted by higher expenses. To test the hypothesis Wagner information was collected on the amount of government spending and the Brazilian production between 1909 and 2012, extracted from IPEADATA. The processing of information in order to reproduce the arguments that led to the completion of the verification or not the Wagner Law was based on techniques of time series. The model of Vector Autoregressive (VAR), the analysis of Granger and Cointegration test were used. Still, the tests of Dickey - Fuller and Phillip - Perron test for identification to check the type of behavior that characterizes the best series of public spending and growth were used. The results highlight that both variables have decided not stationary in level, you characterize as well as a process I(1). The impulse response functions showed a positive relationship not spending towards growth and a low explanatory power of the fluctuations of the latter after the first 20 periods, respectively. The test of Granger pointed out that there is a unidirectional relationship between public spending and growth, with the same expenditure towards growth - ie, only growth can affect the spending behavior in the Granger sense. Finally, the cointegration analysis did find arguments in favor of a long-term relationship for the series in question.
O objetivo deste trabalho à identificar se a lei de Wagner, que se remete ao efeito dos gastos pÃblicos sobre o crescimento econÃmico, pode ser observada para a realidade brasileira. Segundo Wagner, o setor pÃblico à capaz de intervir na economia de modo a alterar sua trajetÃria de crescimento, sendo tal processo promovido pela elevaÃÃo das despesas. Para testar a hipÃtese de Wagner foram coletadas informaÃÃes sobre o montante de gastos governamentais e sobre a produÃÃo brasileira entre 1909 e 2012, extraÃdas do IPEADATA. O processamento das informaÃÃes de modo a reproduzir argumentos que levaram a conclusÃo sobre a verificaÃÃo ou nÃo da lei de Wagner foram baseado em tÃcnicas de sÃries temporais. Foram utilizados o modelo de Vetores Auto-Regressivos (VAR), a anÃlise de causalidade de Granger e o teste de CointegraÃÃo. Ainda, foram utilizados os testes de Dickey-Fuller Aumentado e o teste de Phillip-Perron para identificaÃÃo para verificaÃÃo do tipo de comportamento que melhor caracteriza as sÃries do gasto pÃblico e do crescimento. Os resultados destacam que ambas as variÃveis apresentam-se de forma nÃo estacionÃria em nÃvel, caracterizas, assim, como um processo I(1). As funÃÃes de impulso respostas evidenciaram uma relaÃÃo nÃo positiva do gasto para com o crescimento e um baixo poder de explicaÃÃo das flutuaÃÃes desta Ãltima pela primeira apÃs 20 perÃodos, respectivamente. O teste de Granger destacou que existe uma relaÃÃo unidirecional entre gasto pÃblico e crescimento, sendo a mesmo no sentido crescimento-gasto, ou seja, somente o crescimento à capaz de afetar o comportamento dos gastos no sentido de Granger. Por fim, a anÃlise de cointegraÃÃo encontrou argumentos em favor de uma relaÃÃo de longo prazo para as sÃries em questÃo.
description The objective of this work is to identify whether the Wagner Law, which refers to the effect of public spending on economic growth can be observed for the Brazilian reality. According to Wagner, the public sector is able to intervene in the economy to alter its growth trajectory, with such a process promoted by higher expenses. To test the hypothesis Wagner information was collected on the amount of government spending and the Brazilian production between 1909 and 2012, extracted from IPEADATA. The processing of information in order to reproduce the arguments that led to the completion of the verification or not the Wagner Law was based on techniques of time series. The model of Vector Autoregressive (VAR), the analysis of Granger and Cointegration test were used. Still, the tests of Dickey - Fuller and Phillip - Perron test for identification to check the type of behavior that characterizes the best series of public spending and growth were used. The results highlight that both variables have decided not stationary in level, you characterize as well as a process I(1). The impulse response functions showed a positive relationship not spending towards growth and a low explanatory power of the fluctuations of the latter after the first 20 periods, respectively. The test of Granger pointed out that there is a unidirectional relationship between public spending and growth, with the same expenditure towards growth - ie, only growth can affect the spending behavior in the Granger sense. Finally, the cointegration analysis did find arguments in favor of a long-term relationship for the series in question.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2014-02-19
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
format masterThesis
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=13576
url http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=13576
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do CearÃ
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv Programa de PÃs-GraduaÃÃo em Economia - CAEN
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv UFC
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv BR
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do CearÃ
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
instname:Universidade Federal do Ceará
instacron:UFC
reponame_str Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
collection Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
instname_str Universidade Federal do Ceará
instacron_str UFC
institution UFC
repository.name.fl_str_mv -
repository.mail.fl_str_mv mail@mail.com
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