Avaliação dos impactos das mudanças climáticas na precipitação para os quatros cenários de representative concentration pathway do ipcc em Juazeiro do Norte, Ceará

• Autor(a) principal: Rocha, Maria de Jesus Delmiro
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Outros Autores: Magalhães, Jefferson Hannover Faustino, Lima Neto, Iran Eduardo, Silveira, Cleiton da Silva
• Tipo de documento: Artigo de conferência
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
• Texto Completo: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/59276
• topic: Mudanças climáticas; Precipitação; IPCC

Climatic variability has a strong influence on various activities, such as agriculture and energy generation. Therefore, in order to estimate climate changes, the use of global climate models is used, which, through scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, estimate the climate changes that may occur in the future. This work, hence, aimed to analyze the climatic trends of precipitation and temperature indices in the city of Juazeiro do Norte, State of Ceará, using, for this, data obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - 6th phase (CMIP6), evaluating from historical behavior, the trends of these indexes for different future scenarios proposed by the IPCC. It was concluded that the total annual precipitation did not show an expressive trend of well defined change. However, it was observed that the maximum annual precipitation presents the possibility of intense rains that never occurred before during the historical period. In addition, it should be noted that the most extreme scenarios in the radiative forcing, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, were not the ones that presented the most anomalous conditions in precipitation, being for this the scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5.