Innovative hybrid modeling of wind speed prediction involving time-series models and artificial neural networks

• Main Author: Camelo, Henrique do Nascimento
• Publication Date: 2018
• Other Authors: Lucio, Paulo Sérgio, Leal Junior, João Bosco Verçosa, Santos, Daniel von Glehn dos, Carvalho, Paulo Cesar Marques de
• Format: Article
• Language: eng
• Source: Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
• Download full: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/40986
• topic: Engenharia elétrica; Energia eólica; Inteligência artificial; Série temporal; Wind power; Artificial intelligence; Time series; Forecast

This work proposes hybrid models combining time-series models (using linear functions) and artificial intelligence (using a nonlinear function) that can be used to provide monthly mean wind speed predictions for the Brazilian northeast region. These might be useful for wind power generation; for example, they could acquire important information on how the local wind potential can be usable for a possible wind power plant through understanding future wind speed values. To create the proposed hybrid models, it was necessary to set the wind speed variable as a dependent variable of exogenous variables (i.e., pressure, temperature, and precipitation). Thus, it was possible to consider the meteorological characteristics of the study regions. It is possible to verify the hybrid models’ efficiency in providing perfect adjustments to the observed data. This statement is based on the low values found in the error statistical analysis, i.e., an error of approximately 5.0% and a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient near to 0.96. These results were certainly important in predicting the wind speed time-series, which was similar to the observed wind speed time-series profile. Great similarities of maximums and minimums between the series were evident and showed the capacity of the models to represent the seasonality characteristics.