The effectiveness of Two-Risk Levels containment measures applied during Portuguese COVID-19 second wave: an interrupted time series study

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Anjos, Hugo Alexandre Monoz dos
Publication Date: 2022
Format: Master thesis
Language: eng
Source: Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
Download full: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/54248
Summary: Trabalho de projeto de mestrado, Bioestatística, 2022, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências
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spelling The effectiveness of Two-Risk Levels containment measures applied during Portuguese COVID-19 second wave: an interrupted time series studyCOVID-19Medidas de mitigaçãolockdownSéries Temporais InterrompidasSegunda vagaTrabalhos de projeto de mestrado - 2022Departamento de Estatística e Investigação OperacionalTrabalho de projeto de mestrado, Bioestatística, 2022, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de CiênciasIn order to contain COVID-19 disease dissemination, originated by SARS-CoV-2 viral infection, the Portuguese government took several actions during the country’s second wave. One of such measures was the separation of municipalities into two risk levels, according to their 14 day-cumulative incidence, with containment measures applied according to each level. The objective of this master’s project was to evaluate if this type of targeted containment measures were effective in halting or even reducing the pandemic growth. The aforementioned evaluation was performed using two variables, regularly used to monitor the estate of the pandemic, the number of daily positive COVID-19 tests and the number of daily deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Using an Interrupted Time Series analysis, both variables were modelled trough an impact model with the objective of comparing the pre intervention trend with the post intervention trend. The results show a significant negative change in the regression slope, either for daily tests (p-value < 0.001) as for deaths (p-value < 0.001). The Two-Risk level division of the Portuguese municipalities and application of containment measures according to the level was effective in controlling viral dispersion, either in reducing the number of positive tests as well as the number of daily deaths. Although expected that this type of containment measures will not produce the same level of control as the general confinement of the population, it can still create a significant positive impact while having an estimated smaller socioeconomic impact compared to the impact generated by a full lockdown. As such, targeted containment measures should be considered in future COVID-19 outbreaks as well as in controlling the dissemination of future viruses with pandemic potential.Antunes, Marília Cristina de Sousa, 1969-Repositório da Universidade de LisboaAnjos, Hugo Alexandre Monoz dos2022-08-31T13:33:19Z202220222022-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/54248TID:203217861enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiainstacron:RCAAP2025-03-17T14:49:02Zoai:repositorio.ulisboa.pt:10451/54248Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireinfo@rcaap.ptopendoar:https://opendoar.ac.uk/repository/71602025-05-29T03:25:31.458405Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The effectiveness of Two-Risk Levels containment measures applied during Portuguese COVID-19 second wave: an interrupted time series study
title The effectiveness of Two-Risk Levels containment measures applied during Portuguese COVID-19 second wave: an interrupted time series study
spellingShingle The effectiveness of Two-Risk Levels containment measures applied during Portuguese COVID-19 second wave: an interrupted time series study
Anjos, Hugo Alexandre Monoz dos
COVID-19
Medidas de mitigação
lockdown
Séries Temporais Interrompidas
Segunda vaga
Trabalhos de projeto de mestrado - 2022
Departamento de Estatística e Investigação Operacional
title_short The effectiveness of Two-Risk Levels containment measures applied during Portuguese COVID-19 second wave: an interrupted time series study
title_full The effectiveness of Two-Risk Levels containment measures applied during Portuguese COVID-19 second wave: an interrupted time series study
title_fullStr The effectiveness of Two-Risk Levels containment measures applied during Portuguese COVID-19 second wave: an interrupted time series study
title_full_unstemmed The effectiveness of Two-Risk Levels containment measures applied during Portuguese COVID-19 second wave: an interrupted time series study
title_sort The effectiveness of Two-Risk Levels containment measures applied during Portuguese COVID-19 second wave: an interrupted time series study
author Anjos, Hugo Alexandre Monoz dos
author_facet Anjos, Hugo Alexandre Monoz dos
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Antunes, Marília Cristina de Sousa, 1969-
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Anjos, Hugo Alexandre Monoz dos
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Medidas de mitigação
lockdown
Séries Temporais Interrompidas
Segunda vaga
Trabalhos de projeto de mestrado - 2022
Departamento de Estatística e Investigação Operacional
topic COVID-19
Medidas de mitigação
lockdown
Séries Temporais Interrompidas
Segunda vaga
Trabalhos de projeto de mestrado - 2022
Departamento de Estatística e Investigação Operacional
description Trabalho de projeto de mestrado, Bioestatística, 2022, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-08-31T13:33:19Z
2022
2022
2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10451/54248
TID:203217861
url http://hdl.handle.net/10451/54248
identifier_str_mv TID:203217861
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
collection Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
repository.mail.fl_str_mv info@rcaap.pt
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