Identifying the main drivers of transmission in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Caetano, Constantino
Publication Date: 2024
Other Authors: Angeli, Leonardo, Varela-Lasheras, Irma, Coletti, Pietro, Morgado, Luisa, Lima, Pedro, Willem, Lander, Nunes, Baltazar, Hens, Niel
Format: Article
Language: eng
Source: Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
Download full: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/177556
Summary: Funding Information: Constantino Caetano acknowledges FCT within the PhD grants \u201CDOCTORATES 4 COVID\u201D, grant number 2020.10172.BD. Lu\u00EDsa Morgado and Pedro Lima also acknowledge FCT within project UIDB/04621/2020 (Center for Computational and Stochastic Mathematics https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04621/2020). Lander Willem gratefully acknowledges support from the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) (ACCELERATE project G059423N) and the University Research Fund (BOF) from the University of Antwerp. Niel Hens acknowledges funding from the Methusalem-Centre of Excellence consortium VAX-IDEA. This project has received funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme - project EpiPose (Grant agreement number 101003688) and the ESCAPE project (101095619), funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or European Health and Digital Executive Agency (HADEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024.
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spelling Identifying the main drivers of transmission in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in PortugalGeneralSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingFunding Information: Constantino Caetano acknowledges FCT within the PhD grants \u201CDOCTORATES 4 COVID\u201D, grant number 2020.10172.BD. Lu\u00EDsa Morgado and Pedro Lima also acknowledge FCT within project UIDB/04621/2020 (Center for Computational and Stochastic Mathematics https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04621/2020). Lander Willem gratefully acknowledges support from the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) (ACCELERATE project G059423N) and the University Research Fund (BOF) from the University of Antwerp. Niel Hens acknowledges funding from the Methusalem-Centre of Excellence consortium VAX-IDEA. This project has received funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme - project EpiPose (Grant agreement number 101003688) and the ESCAPE project (101095619), funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or European Health and Digital Executive Agency (HADEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024.In this study, we employed a modeling approach to describe how changes in age-specific epidemiological characteristics, such as behaviour, i.e. contact patterns, susceptibility and infectivity, influence the basic reproduction number R0, while accounting for heterogeneity in transmission. We computed sensitivity measures related to R0, that describe the relative contribution of each age group towards overall transmission. Additionally, we proposed a new indicator that provides the expected relative change in the number of new infections, given a public health intervention. Studying the outbreak of COVID-19 in Portugal during March 2020, our results show that the main drivers of transmission were individuals 30–59 years old. Furthermore, by studying the impact of imposed changes in susceptibility and infectivity, our results demonstrate that a 10% decrease in susceptibility for the 30–39 years old results in a incidence reduction after 3 generations of approximately 17% in this age group and 4–6% reduction as an indirect effect in the remaining age groups. The presented methodology provides tools to inform the allocation strategy of mitigation measures in an outbreak of an infectious disease. Its inherent versatility enables the easy incorporation of data specific to various populations, facilitating a comparative analysis of epidemic control effects across different countries.Comprehensive Health Research Centre (CHRC) - Pólo ENSPCentro de Investigação em Saúde Pública (CISP/PHRC)Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública (ENSP)RUNCaetano, ConstantinoAngeli, LeonardoVarela-Lasheras, IrmaColetti, PietroMorgado, LuisaLima, PedroWillem, LanderNunes, BaltazarHens, Niel2025-01-16T21:22:53Z2024-122024-12-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/177556eng2045-2322PURE: 106841894https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76604-6info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiainstacron:RCAAP2025-01-20T01:39:19Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/177556Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireinfo@rcaap.ptopendoar:https://opendoar.ac.uk/repository/71602025-05-28T19:40:31.900401Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Identifying the main drivers of transmission in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal
title Identifying the main drivers of transmission in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal
spellingShingle Identifying the main drivers of transmission in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal
Caetano, Constantino
General
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
title_short Identifying the main drivers of transmission in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal
title_full Identifying the main drivers of transmission in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal
title_fullStr Identifying the main drivers of transmission in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal
title_full_unstemmed Identifying the main drivers of transmission in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal
title_sort Identifying the main drivers of transmission in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal
author Caetano, Constantino
author_facet Caetano, Constantino
Angeli, Leonardo
Varela-Lasheras, Irma
Coletti, Pietro
Morgado, Luisa
Lima, Pedro
Willem, Lander
Nunes, Baltazar
Hens, Niel
author_role author
author2 Angeli, Leonardo
Varela-Lasheras, Irma
Coletti, Pietro
Morgado, Luisa
Lima, Pedro
Willem, Lander
Nunes, Baltazar
Hens, Niel
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Comprehensive Health Research Centre (CHRC) - Pólo ENSP
Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública (CISP/PHRC)
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública (ENSP)
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Caetano, Constantino
Angeli, Leonardo
Varela-Lasheras, Irma
Coletti, Pietro
Morgado, Luisa
Lima, Pedro
Willem, Lander
Nunes, Baltazar
Hens, Niel
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv General
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
topic General
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
description Funding Information: Constantino Caetano acknowledges FCT within the PhD grants \u201CDOCTORATES 4 COVID\u201D, grant number 2020.10172.BD. Lu\u00EDsa Morgado and Pedro Lima also acknowledge FCT within project UIDB/04621/2020 (Center for Computational and Stochastic Mathematics https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04621/2020). Lander Willem gratefully acknowledges support from the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) (ACCELERATE project G059423N) and the University Research Fund (BOF) from the University of Antwerp. Niel Hens acknowledges funding from the Methusalem-Centre of Excellence consortium VAX-IDEA. This project has received funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme - project EpiPose (Grant agreement number 101003688) and the ESCAPE project (101095619), funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or European Health and Digital Executive Agency (HADEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-12
2024-12-01T00:00:00Z
2025-01-16T21:22:53Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/177556
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/177556
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 2045-2322
PURE: 106841894
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76604-6
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
collection Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
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