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The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns : the Euro Area, the UK and the US

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Sousa, Ricardo M.
Publication Date: 2010
Format: Article
Language: eng
Source: Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
Download full: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/11680
Summary: In this paper, I assess the forecasting power of the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income for stock returns and government bond yields in the euro area, the UK and the US . I find that when stock returns are expected to be higher in the future, forward-looking investors will temporarily allow consumption to rise. As for bond returns, when government bonds are seen as a component of asset wealth, then investors react in the same manner. If, however, investors perceive the increase in bond returns as signalling a future rise in taxes or a deterioration of public finances, then they will let consumption fall temporarily below its equilibrium level.
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spelling The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns : the Euro Area, the UK and the USConsumptionWealthStock returnsBond returnsIn this paper, I assess the forecasting power of the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income for stock returns and government bond yields in the euro area, the UK and the US . I find that when stock returns are expected to be higher in the future, forward-looking investors will temporarily allow consumption to rise. As for bond returns, when government bonds are seen as a component of asset wealth, then investors react in the same manner. If, however, investors perceive the increase in bond returns as signalling a future rise in taxes or a deterioration of public finances, then they will let consumption fall temporarily below its equilibrium level.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - Programa Operacional Ciência e Inovação 2010 (POCI 2010)Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional (FEDER)Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)Universidade do MinhoSousa, Ricardo M.20102010-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/11680engSOUSA, Ricardo M. - “The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns : the Euro Area, the UK and the US“ [Em linha]. Braga : Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, 2010. [Consult. 7 Fev. 2011]. Disponível em WWW: <URL: <www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2010/NIPE_WP_9_2010.pdf>.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiainstacron:RCAAP2024-05-11T07:04:08Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/11680Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireinfo@rcaap.ptopendoar:https://opendoar.ac.uk/repository/71602025-05-28T16:14:11.217852Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns : the Euro Area, the UK and the US
title The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns : the Euro Area, the UK and the US
spellingShingle The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns : the Euro Area, the UK and the US
Sousa, Ricardo M.
Consumption
Wealth
Stock returns
Bond returns
title_short The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns : the Euro Area, the UK and the US
title_full The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns : the Euro Area, the UK and the US
title_fullStr The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns : the Euro Area, the UK and the US
title_full_unstemmed The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns : the Euro Area, the UK and the US
title_sort The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns : the Euro Area, the UK and the US
author Sousa, Ricardo M.
author_facet Sousa, Ricardo M.
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Sousa, Ricardo M.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Consumption
Wealth
Stock returns
Bond returns
topic Consumption
Wealth
Stock returns
Bond returns
description In this paper, I assess the forecasting power of the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income for stock returns and government bond yields in the euro area, the UK and the US . I find that when stock returns are expected to be higher in the future, forward-looking investors will temporarily allow consumption to rise. As for bond returns, when government bonds are seen as a component of asset wealth, then investors react in the same manner. If, however, investors perceive the increase in bond returns as signalling a future rise in taxes or a deterioration of public finances, then they will let consumption fall temporarily below its equilibrium level.
publishDate 2010
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2010
2010-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1822/11680
url http://hdl.handle.net/1822/11680
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv SOUSA, Ricardo M. - “The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns : the Euro Area, the UK and the US“ [Em linha]. Braga : Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, 2010. [Consult. 7 Fev. 2011]. Disponível em WWW: <URL: <www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2010/NIPE_WP_9_2010.pdf>.
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
collection Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
repository.mail.fl_str_mv info@rcaap.pt
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