Understanding business cycles: credit supply, household debt and financial crises in Portugal

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Santos, Ricardo Filipe Pereira
Publication Date: 2020
Format: Master thesis
Language: eng
Source: Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
Download full: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/95078
Summary: Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and Management
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spelling Understanding business cycles: credit supply, household debt and financial crises in PortugalHousehold DebtCredit SupplyFinancial CrisesBusiness CyclesFinancial DeregulationDissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and ManagementThroughout the last century, severe financial crises hit the financial markets, whose effects then spread all over the world. Taking the recent example of the 2008 subprime crisis, it is now clear it had its main drivers in excess credit supply and record household debt, which had been spiking since the 80’s and 90’s decades. Allied to weak risk management policies and the deregulation in financial markets, along with subprime credit concession and speculation regarding complex financial products, the households’ debt levels rose to a point that helped generate one of the greatest financial crises in history, whose effects were felt around the globe. From the moment these crises happened, various authors studied and analyzed the reasons behind the events leading to them, and how they reached the magnitude to cause such an impact. Several studies concerning households’ indebtedness and credit supply were made regarding many countries and provide a closer look at how these indicators are related and how they react in periods marked by financial crises as the ones described above. Some of them were able to prove that, indeed, there is a connection not only between them, but also with financial markets liberalization and weak risk management policies. After establishing a relationship between credit supply and household debt, and connecting both to business cycles, the core goal of this study is to evaluate the evolution of household debt in Portugal since the introduction of the Euro and which factors contributed with the most impact to that same evolution. Our work will start with a literature review to explain the credit-driven household demand channel concept and the dynamics implied and proceed with a statistical analysis of key indicators focusing on explaining the behavior of household debt in Portugal. These will include a time-adjusted correlations analysis and a linear regression model. Finally, we will present the conclusions reached through these methods, which resulted in a good performing model composed of five independent variables explaining the evolution of household debt to GDP in Portugal in different moments in time, and present future study possibilities to enhance the knowledge on this topic.Gonçalves, Rui Alexandre HenriquesRUNSantos, Ricardo Filipe Pereira2020-03-26T13:10:13Z2020-03-182020-03-18T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/95078TID:202469239enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiainstacron:RCAAP2024-05-22T17:44:25Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/95078Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireinfo@rcaap.ptopendoar:https://opendoar.ac.uk/repository/71602025-05-28T17:15:55.685640Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Understanding business cycles: credit supply, household debt and financial crises in Portugal
title Understanding business cycles: credit supply, household debt and financial crises in Portugal
spellingShingle Understanding business cycles: credit supply, household debt and financial crises in Portugal
Santos, Ricardo Filipe Pereira
Household Debt
Credit Supply
Financial Crises
Business Cycles
Financial Deregulation
title_short Understanding business cycles: credit supply, household debt and financial crises in Portugal
title_full Understanding business cycles: credit supply, household debt and financial crises in Portugal
title_fullStr Understanding business cycles: credit supply, household debt and financial crises in Portugal
title_full_unstemmed Understanding business cycles: credit supply, household debt and financial crises in Portugal
title_sort Understanding business cycles: credit supply, household debt and financial crises in Portugal
author Santos, Ricardo Filipe Pereira
author_facet Santos, Ricardo Filipe Pereira
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Gonçalves, Rui Alexandre Henriques
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Santos, Ricardo Filipe Pereira
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Household Debt
Credit Supply
Financial Crises
Business Cycles
Financial Deregulation
topic Household Debt
Credit Supply
Financial Crises
Business Cycles
Financial Deregulation
description Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and Management
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-03-26T13:10:13Z
2020-03-18
2020-03-18T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/95078
TID:202469239
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/95078
identifier_str_mv TID:202469239
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
instname:FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
collection Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositórios Científicos de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) - FCCN, serviços digitais da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
repository.mail.fl_str_mv info@rcaap.pt
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