Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Aguilar, Soraida
Publication Date: 2024
Other Authors: Bastos, Leonardo S. L., Maçaira, Paula, Baião, Fernanda, Simões, Paulo, Cerbino-Neto, José, Ranzani, Otavio, Hamacher, Silvio, Bozza, Fernando Augusto
Format: Article
Language: eng
Source: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072314
Download full: https://arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/70801
Summary: This work is part of the Grand Challenges ICODA pilot initiative, delivered by Health Data Research UK and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Minderoo Foundation. This study was also supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) - Finance Code 001, Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ), the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. OR is funded by a Sara Borrell grant from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CD19/00110). PM acknowledges suppor from the CNPq (Grant 311519/2022-9). OR acknowledges support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and State Research Agency through the ‘Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019-2023’ programme (CEX2018-000806-S) and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA programme. All authors carried out the research independently of the funding bodies. The findings and conclusions in this manuscript reflect the opinions of the authors alone.
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spelling Aguilar, SoraidaBastos, Leonardo S. L.Maçaira, PaulaBaião, FernandaSimões, PauloCerbino-Neto, JoséRanzani, OtavioHamacher, SilvioBozza, Fernando Augusto2025-06-02T00:44:19Z2025-06-02T00:44:19Z2024AGUILAR, Soraida et al. Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study. BMJ Open, v. 14, n. 7, p. 1-9, Jul. 2024.2044-6055https://arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/7080110.1136/bmjopen-2023-0723142044-6055This work is part of the Grand Challenges ICODA pilot initiative, delivered by Health Data Research UK and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Minderoo Foundation. This study was also supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) - Finance Code 001, Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ), the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. OR is funded by a Sara Borrell grant from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CD19/00110). PM acknowledges suppor from the CNPq (Grant 311519/2022-9). OR acknowledges support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and State Research Agency through the ‘Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019-2023’ programme (CEX2018-000806-S) and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA programme. All authors carried out the research independently of the funding bodies. The findings and conclusions in this manuscript reflect the opinions of the authors alone.Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Department of Industrial Engineering. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Department of Industrial Engineering. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Tecgraf Institute. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Department of Industrial Engineering. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Department of Industrial Engineering. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Department of Industrial Engineering. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / D'Or Institute for Research and Education. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.Hospital Clínic-Universitat de Barcelona. ISGlobal. Barcelona Institute for Global Health. Barcelona, Spain / Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina. Hospital das Clínicas. Instituto do Coração. Divisão Pulmonar. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Department of Industrial Engineering. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Tecgraf Institute. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / D'Or Institute for Research and Education. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / NOVA University of Lisbon. NOVA Medical School. Comprehensive Health Research Centre. Lisbon, Portugal.Objectives: No consensus exists about the best COVID-19 vaccination strategy to be adopted by low-income and middle-income countries. Brazil adopted an age-based calendar strategy to reduce mortality and the burden on the healthcare system. This study evaluates the impact of the vaccination campaign in Brazil on the progression of the reported COVID-19 deaths. Methods: This ecological study analyses the dynamic of vaccination coverage and COVID-19 deaths in hospitalised adults (≥20 years) during the first year of the COVID-19 vaccination roll-out (January to December 2021) using nationwide data (DATASUS). We stratified the adult population into 20-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70+ years. The dynamic effect of the vaccination campaign on mortality rates was estimated by applying a negative binomial regression. The prevented and possible preventable deaths (observed deaths higher than expected) and potential years of life lost (PYLL) for each age group were obtained in a counterfactual analysis. Results: During the first year of COVID-19 vaccination, 266 153 517 doses were administered, achieving 91% first-dose coverage. A total of 380 594 deaths were reported, 154 091 (40%) in 70+ years and 136 804 (36%) from 50-59 or 20-49 years. The mortality rates of 70+ decreased by 52% (rate ratio [95% CI]: 0.48 [0.43-0.53]) in 6 months, whereas rates for 20-49 were still increasing due to low coverage (52%). The vaccination roll-out strategy prevented 59 618 deaths, 53 088 (89%) from those aged 70+ years. However, the strategy did not prevent 54 797 deaths, 85% from those under 60 years, being 26 344 (45%) only in 20-49, corresponding to 1 589 271 PYLL, being 1 080 104 PYLL (68%) from those aged 20-49 years. Conclusion: The adopted aged-based calendar vaccination strategy initially reduced mortality in the oldest but did not prevent the deaths of the youngest as effectively as compared with the older age group. Countries with a high burden, limited vaccine supply and young populations should consider other factors beyond the age to prioritise who should be vaccinated first.engBMJ Publishing GroupImpact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological studyinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleCOVID-19EpidemiologyPublic healthinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/b1843a6a-6690-400c-8305-cb10f878ad06/download5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51falseAnonymousREADORIGINALve_Soraida Aguilar_etal_INI_2024.pdfve_Soraida Aguilar_etal_INI_2024.pdfapplication/pdf1605293https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/1ace2118-8303-4b7e-8491-c46a1c2c3549/download7c19788095484973fbf0f47a67fe86a6MD52trueAnonymousREADTHUMBNAILcapa_page-0001.jpgcapa_page-0001.jpgimage/jpeg1209383https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/8119f95f-10f5-472c-9726-c275307bc351/download06e79116191d0f20b3abee31df3f4871MD53falseAnonymousREADve_Soraida Aguilar_etal_INI_2024.pdf.jpgve_Soraida Aguilar_etal_INI_2024.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg6560https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/93b6d6d2-f330-493f-ab40-68abf6a71460/download7247bfc6f752560cde7603d56cc54239MD59falseAnonymousREADTEXTve_Soraida Aguilar_etal_INI_2024.pdf.txtve_Soraida Aguilar_etal_INI_2024.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain50041https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/2beb30c5-7d47-481d-90a3-451b75417a87/download8f6bab88efe6c0a92a38b0b1445418f4MD58falseAnonymousREADicict/708012025-07-29 20:30:32.873open.accessoai:arca.fiocruz.br:icict/70801https://arca.fiocruz.brRepositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/oai/requestrepositorio.arca@fiocruz.bropendoar:21352025-07-29T23:30:32Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - 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dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study
title Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study
spellingShingle Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study
Aguilar, Soraida
COVID-19
Epidemiology
Public health
title_short Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study
title_full Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study
title_fullStr Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study
title_full_unstemmed Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study
title_sort Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study
author Aguilar, Soraida
author_facet Aguilar, Soraida
Bastos, Leonardo S. L.
Maçaira, Paula
Baião, Fernanda
Simões, Paulo
Cerbino-Neto, José
Ranzani, Otavio
Hamacher, Silvio
Bozza, Fernando Augusto
author_role author
author2 Bastos, Leonardo S. L.
Maçaira, Paula
Baião, Fernanda
Simões, Paulo
Cerbino-Neto, José
Ranzani, Otavio
Hamacher, Silvio
Bozza, Fernando Augusto
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Aguilar, Soraida
Bastos, Leonardo S. L.
Maçaira, Paula
Baião, Fernanda
Simões, Paulo
Cerbino-Neto, José
Ranzani, Otavio
Hamacher, Silvio
Bozza, Fernando Augusto
dc.subject.en.none.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Epidemiology
Public health
topic COVID-19
Epidemiology
Public health
description This work is part of the Grand Challenges ICODA pilot initiative, delivered by Health Data Research UK and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Minderoo Foundation. This study was also supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) - Finance Code 001, Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ), the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. OR is funded by a Sara Borrell grant from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CD19/00110). PM acknowledges suppor from the CNPq (Grant 311519/2022-9). OR acknowledges support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and State Research Agency through the ‘Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019-2023’ programme (CEX2018-000806-S) and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA programme. All authors carried out the research independently of the funding bodies. The findings and conclusions in this manuscript reflect the opinions of the authors alone.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2024
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2025-06-02T00:44:19Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2025-06-02T00:44:19Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv AGUILAR, Soraida et al. Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study. BMJ Open, v. 14, n. 7, p. 1-9, Jul. 2024.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/70801
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 2044-6055
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072314
dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv 2044-6055
identifier_str_mv AGUILAR, Soraida et al. Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study. BMJ Open, v. 14, n. 7, p. 1-9, Jul. 2024.
2044-6055
10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072314
url https://arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/70801
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv BMJ Publishing Group
publisher.none.fl_str_mv BMJ Publishing Group
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