Assessing the transferability of crash prediction models for two lane highways in Brazil

• Ano de defesa: 2017
• Autor(a) principal: Silva, Karla Cristina Rodrigues
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Instituição de defesa: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
• Palavras-chave em Português: Brasil; Brazil; Crash prediction model; Florida; HSM; Método de previsão de acidentes; Rodovia de pista simples; Safety analysis; Segurança viária; Transferabilidade; Transferability; Two lane highway
• Link de acesso: http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/18/18144/tde-10112017-215500/

The present study focused on evaluating some crash prediction models for two lane highways on Brazilian conditions. Also, the transferability of models was considered, specifically by means of a comparison between Brazil, HSM and Florida. The analysis of two lane highways crash prediction models was promising when the road characteristics were well known and there was not much difference from base conditions. This conclusion was attained regarding the comparison of results for all segments, non-curved segments and curved segments, confirming that a transferred model can be used with caution. In addition, two novel models for Brazilian two-lane highways segments were estimated. The model developed showed better results for non-curved segments in the calibration/validation sample. Thus, for a general analysis purpose of non-curved segments this model is recommended. Finally, there are many factors that could not be measured by these models and reflects road safety various condition. Even so, the study of crash predict models in Brazilian context could provide a better start point in safety road analysis.