Os efeitos da recessão econômica de 2014-2016 sobre a inadimplência de cartões de crédito no mercado e no cartão Private Label no varejo alimentar

• Ano de defesa: 2020
• Autor(a) principal: Tamaki, Carlos Antonio
• Orientador(a): Vartanian, Pedro Raffy
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie
• Palavras-chave em Português: inadimplência; cartão de crédito; private label; modelo VAR; Granger
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA
• Link de acesso: http://dspace.mackenzie.br/handle/10899/26606

This study explores the effects of the 2014-2016 Brazilian recession on credit card delinquency in the industry and on the Private Label cards in food retail in a comparative way. The study consists in initially presenting the financial industry, the credit card industry and the private label industry. Then, the study explores the historical evolution of the industry and its delinquency and, finally, through an econometric analysis, verify the response of the delinquency in the credit card industry and the private label card in food retail after simulating shocks of macroeconomic variables such as GDP, salary mass, unemployment rate, among others, by applying a VAR (autoregressive vectors) model. Additionally, the study evaluates how these variables may affect the credit card delinquency in the two types mentioned above. For this purpose, the study uses precedence tests in order to verify if there was a causality in the sense of Granger, about the default of the credit card industry and the Private Label card. Among the results found by the study, it was possible to identify that the delinquency rates of the credit card of the market and of the Private Label, have different behaviors, from the simulations of response to impulses as in the variables that precede them, being that the delinquency of the card Private Label, preceded a greater number of variables compared to the delinquency of credit cards in the industry.