Cenários prospectivos e desenvolvimento de cidades a partir da visão de atores sociais: um estudo sobre o município de Marília/SP

• Ano de defesa: 2015
• Autor(a) principal: Gitahy Junior, Ivan Márcio [UNESP]
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
• Palavras-chave em Português: Cidades e vilas - Marília (SP); Planejamento urbano; Economia urbana; Crescimento urbano; City planning
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/11449/128064; http://www.athena.biblioteca.unesp.br/exlibris/bd/cathedra/22-09-2015/000850317.pdf

This thesis, developed in the Doctoral Program of Social Sciences from Júlio de Mesquita Filho State University, has as main objective to generate and interpret prospective scenarios in order to understand and contribute to the development of cities and has as specific objectives: theoretically discuss the concepts of growth, economic development and human development; introduce the concept of prospective scenarios and their construction methods, highlighting the Grumbach's method; analyze the influence of social actors in the development of events; present from the events, the matrices of cross-impact and of motricity and dependence; generate and interpret prospective scenarios for the Municipality of Marília/SP up to the year 2024. The methodology used was based on a qualitative-quantitative method. The collection, handling and analysis of data were developed in five stages. First it was made a bibliographical research to develop the theoretical background that focused on the concepts of economic growth, economic development, human development and methods of studies based on prospective scenarios. In the second step were conducted interviews with specialists and representatives of the following sectors: government, entrepreneurs, education, social leaders and population, using the data collection technique of brainstorming in order to identify events that could be more relevant to the research. The third stage was the development of fourteen preliminary events and in the fourth, after several studies and discussions with the components of the control group, in a second brainstorming session were listed eleven definitive events, considered to be the most relevant to the study. Finally in the fifth stage it was made a research among expert's opinions to verify the probability of occurrence of the events, using the Grumbach's method. As the results from the prospective studies of the Municipality of Marília/SP up to...