Ensaios sobre mudanças estruturais, taxa de câmbio, indústria e cadeias globais de valor

• Ano de defesa: 2025
• Autor(a) principal: Sousa Júnior, Valdecy Caetano
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Uberlândia; Brasil; Programa de Pós-graduação em Economia
• Palavras-chave em Português: mudanças estruturais; taxa de câmbio; indústria; complexidade econômica; cadeias globais de valor; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::CRESCIMENTO, FLUTUACOES E PLANEJAMENTO ECONOMICO::CRESCIMENTO E DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONOMICO; Economia; Taxas de câmbio; Macroeconomia; Indústrias; ODS::ODS 8. Trabalho decente e crescimento econômico - Promover o crescimento econômico sustentado, inclusivo e sustentável, emprego pleno e produtivo, e trabalho decente para todos.
• Link de acesso: https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/44993; http://doi.org/10.14393/ufu.te.2025.8

This work develops three essays on the relationships between structural changes, exchange rates, economic complexity, and integration into Global Value Chains (GVCs). The structural change variable is constructed based on the methodology by McMillan and Rodrik (2011), capturing the productivity variation resulting from labor shifts between economic sectors. The first essay investigates the role of exchange rates in structural changes for 46 countries during the period from 1991 to 2018. Using Panel-PMG ARDL models, the variables analyzed include nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates, and exchange rate misalignment, while controlling for the effects of macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, inflation, and trade openness. The results suggest that a more depreciated exchange rate and the occurrence of exchange rate misalignment drive labor shifts to more productive sectors, which positively contributes to structural changes. The second essay focuses on the Brazilian manufacturing industry, analyzing structural changes within this sector between 2004 and 2021. Using methodologies such as ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, and GMM, macroeconomic variables including the Selic interest rate, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, and the economic complexity index were evaluated. The results indicate that structural changes in the manufacturing industry positively affected the productivity of the Brazilian economy. Furthermore, the macroeconomic environment, particularly the investment rate and economic complexity level, played a crucial role in this process. Lastly, the third essay explores the relationship between GVC participation and labor shifts across 29 countries, primarily developing economies, during the period from 1995 to 2018. Forward, backward, and total GVC participation were analyzed using PMG ARDL models and Granger and Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality tests. The results demonstrate that GVC participation has positive effects on structural changes, with forward participation standing out as a driver of labor shifts between sectors. The essays show that exchange rates, investment levels, economic complexity, and GVC participation have an impact on structural changes. The findings are significant as they present alternatives for promoting structural transformations, which can enable a long-term economic growth trajectory.