Aspectos Financeiros da Doença Holandesa: O Arranjo Institucional De Gestão da DPMFi e Rentabilidade das Carteiras de Títulos Públicos sob a Dinâmica de Sobreapreciação Cambial

• Ano de defesa: 2020
• Autor(a) principal: Prado, Pedro Luiz Moura Aprigio Da Silva [UNIFESP]
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)
• Palavras-chave em Português: New Developmentalism; Dutch Disease; Financial Cycles; Debt Public; Public Titles; Novo Desenvolvimentismo; Doença Holandesa; Ciclos Financeiros; Dívida Pública; Títulos Públicos
• Link de acesso: https://sucupira.capes.gov.br/sucupira/public/consultas/coleta/trabalhoConclusao/viewTrabalhoConclusao.jsf?popup=true&id_trabalho=10816576; https://hdl.handle.net/11600/64676

The work in question seeks to understand the effects of the relationship between the dynamics of the exchange rate, in a context of Dutch disease, and the persistence of the institutional arrangement of financing of the Federal Internal Securities Public Debt. To this end, it seeks to elaborate the connection between the cyclical component of the trend of chronic overvaluation of the exchange rate and the profitability and liquidity of the different components of an investment strategy based on federal government bonds. An essential part of this connection would be based on the greater sensitivity of local markets to changes in global financial cycles, determined by the monetary policy of central economies and the perception of risk by financial agents international standards. Thus, in times of increasing global liquidity, the appreciation of interest rates exchange rate would have a positive effect on the real profitability accumulated in strategies based on inflation-pegged and hybrid bonds, increasing the incentive to load of these assets in the portfolios. On the other hand, when the liquidity cycle is reversed and the consequent devaluation of the exchange rate, capital would find protection in investments post-fixed, with the recomposition of portfolios partly guaranteed by practices such as auctions exchanges promoted by the National Treasury.