Modelo computacional da dinâmica da cadeia de suprimentos do commodity do café brasileiro

Detalhes bibliográficos
Ano de defesa: 2017
Autor(a) principal: Ferreira, Alexandre José
Orientador(a): Não Informado pela instituição
Banca de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
Idioma: por
Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Brasil
Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica
UFRJ
Programa de Pós-Graduação: Não Informado pela instituição
Departamento: Não Informado pela instituição
País: Não Informado pela instituição
Palavras-chave em Português:
Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/11422/8241
Resumo: The Brazilian coffee industry faces new challenges, which can change the structure of production. The coffee market appears to be a complex dynamic system, with dominant negative feedbacks, as well as response delays, which generate oscillations. The dynamic models proposed in the literature for the coffee market are not practical and are not fully calibrated and realistic, although they suggest that oscillations are endogenous. This paper proposes to generate a mathematical and computational model of the dynamics of the Brazilian coffee commodity to investigate its behavior. Where concepts of dynamic systems theory and statistical, associated with market data and analysis, were used. As a computational tool, the Stella Architect software and its features were employed to model the mathematical equations. The dynamic model developed can estimate tree stocks, production, exports, and gross opening stocks of green coffee, among other variables. The dynamic model can therefore be used as a risk management tool and be adapted to receive other functionalities and data, as well as estimate data for longer horizons and different scenarios, serving governments, cooperatives and producers.