O impacto da renda domiciliar sobre a demanda de água, de energia elétrica e a geração de resíduos sólidos em centros urbanos: uma modelagem a partir de cenários socioeconômicos conjunturais

• Ano de defesa: 2012
• Autor(a) principal: David Montero Dias
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: Meio Ambiente e Recursos Hídricos; Saneamento; Engenharia sanitária
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/BUOS-8ZRMGZ

The fast urbanization process was responsible for about 85% of Brazilian population move to towns and cities (IBGE, 2010) along the twentieth century. A direct cause of this process has been an increasing pressure on several Brazilian economical sectors for public services, mainly in utility companies associated with electricity and water supply, and with solid waste collection. Furthermore, from the year 2000, Brazil has experienced a growth in its Gross National Product (GNP), which has led to an income rise of many portions of its population. Besides,the current Brazilian socio-economical situation has motivated an increase in the consumption of several products at different scales.Importation and national production of many goods have grown to satisfy the increased Brazilian population demand. However, service companies responsible for water and electricity supply and public waste collection require significant investments in their infrastructures in order to attend satisfactorily to Brazilian population needs. The necessaryinvestments for expansion of utility companies demand appropriate studies and plans to support those expansion projects. It is well known that family consumption patterns are related to family income. Thisrelationship between family consumption and income can be represented by mathematical models capable of evaluating the impact of each product or service on family budget. Based on those models, this work deals with an evaluation about the impact of Brazilian familyincreasing income on the demands for water and electricity supply and solid waste collection services. The main goal of this evaluation is to develop a procedure capable of estimating the required investment in infrastructure to support the Brazilian economical growth, considering that the service quality of utility companies is kept at a minimum standard to avoid problems in the current net of public services. The methodology of this work can be employed to model the urban family consumption ofwater, electricity, and solid waste collection service using available data from the socio- economical situation of the population of two Brazilian cities Belo Horizonte and Porto Alegre. The results obtained by the models developed in this work show that is is possible to obtain areliable correlation between family income and the demands for water, electricity, and waste collection services. Using these models, feasible expansion projects for Brazilian utility companies can be developed, according to the population growth rate and distribution in function of its size, socio-economical status, or income. Also, these models are intended to subsidize the management and administration of utilitycompanies in search of improving their efficiency and efficacy. The analysis presented in this work shows clearly that family income is the variable that plays the most important role in the demand for services and products. The proposed methodology is validated by comparing theresults rendered by the models with available data from the cities of Belo Horizonte and Porto Alegre, respectively capitals of the states of Brazilian states of Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul. This thesis aims to prove that it is possible planning and forecast the household demands forwater, electricity and solid waste generation in urban environments, based in socioeconomics variables. This tool can be used to establish strategies in order to expand or downsize distribution and collection networks according several estimated economics scenarios,ensuring the desired sustainable development and quality of living populations conditions.