Metodologia para análise de investimento em sistemas fotovoltaicos considerando parâmetros de incerteza e métricas de risco

• Ano de defesa: 2017
• Autor(a) principal: Jean Diniz
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: Geração distribuída; Monte Carlo; Sistemas fotovoltaicos; Análise de investimentos; Métricas de risco; Engenharia elétrica; Investimentos Análise
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/RAOA-BBZN6N

Brazil has observed the expansion of photovoltaic systems since the publication of REN 482 in 2012. After its revision, with the publication of REN 687/2015 new challenges and opportunities emerged in the commercial and academic universe. It is worth mentioning the structure of the production chain of photovoltaic systems formed by the equipment manufacturers, then by the distributors, the integrators and the final customers, who represent the target audience that takes advantage of the benefits of photovoltaic systems. They have access to distinct models to join these systems of which stand out: acquisition, rent and consortium. In this context, the objective of this work is to aggregate engineering and economics knowledge to propose a methodology for the analysis of investments in photovoltaic systems considering uncertainty parameters and risk metrics. First, the modeling of the uncertainties related to photovoltaic systems was carried out. They were classified into three groups: Solar Resource, System Performance and Uncertainties of the Energy Market. Then, the characteristics of the three main business models of the photovoltaic market were identified: the acquisition, rental and consortium model. The cash flow of each model was modeled and the methodology was implemented considering uncertainties, business models, investment valuation methods (NPV, IRR, LCOE and Discounted Payback) and VaR and CVaR risk metrics. The methodology used the Monte Carlo simulation to simulate the different SFV response scenarios. At the end of the study it was concluded that the methodology was adequate for a complete evaluation regarding the attractiveness potential of the different business model and the risk assessment undertaken by the investor when choosing each model. It also presents the advantages and disadvantages of each business model based on the methodology result. The acquisition model presents a greater potential of gain while the model of rent presents the lowest risk and the consortium model offers potential of gain with less decapitalization.