A elevação dos preços dos imóveis no Brasil de 2002 a 2013: uma abordagem teórica, histórica e econométrica

• Ano de defesa: 2014
• Autor(a) principal: Marina Moreira de Aguiar
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: Crédito imobiliário; Brasil; Mercado imobiliário residencial; ens imóveis Avaliação; Planejamento urbano; Habitação popular
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/BUBD-A5AESQ

This study aims to identify the factors that boosted housing prices in Brazil from 2002 to 2013. For this, a theoretical, historical and econometric research was employed and then divided into three chapters. The first chapter sought in real estate theories the nationwide factors that affect property prices. They are the mortgage costs, the populations income and the institutions governing the market and its profitability. International experience has shown that, under different institutional arrangements, the reduction of mortgage loan portfolio risks expanded market access and at the same time made room for price growth. The historical analysis in chapter 2 aimed to highlight the factors that led to the 2002 Brazilian situation and changes since then that may have enabled the expansion of real estate prices. The research identified the relevance of the national law 10.931/2004 which increased legal certainty of mortgage contracts, contributed to the default rate reduction and therefore to public credit cost reduction Moreover, Lula administration (2003-2010) was characterized by economic and household income growth, which may also have driven housing demand and thus their prices. Finally, the econometric models indicated as key drivers of property prices the defaults rate decline and the household incomes increase which are corroborated by the literature. At the same time, GDP construction growth pushed prices downwards not allowing higher pricing expansion. This result seems to reflect the impact of housing stock increase on its values, which is also consistent with the literature.