Avaliação probabilística de incertezas relacionadas a parâmetros de brecha e coeficientes de rugosidade na modelagem hidrodinâmica bidimensional de inundações

• Ano de defesa: 2022
• Autor(a) principal: Rodrigo Perdigão Gomes Bezerra
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; Brasil; ENG - DEPARTAMENTO DE ENGENHARIA HIDRÁULICA; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saneamento, Meio Ambiente e Recursos Hídricos; UFMG
• Palavras-chave em Português: HEC-RAS; Incertezas; Python; Engenharia sanitária; Recursos hídricos - Desenvolvimento; Incerteza; Python (Linguagem de programação de computador); Inundações
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/53818

Probabilistic flood inundations maps allow to considerate uncertainties related to a hydrodynamic modeling as a probability of occurrence of the results. Among the sources of uncertainty related to a model, it can be highlighted uncertainties related to Manning coefficient, topobathymetric data and breach parameters when dealing with dam break studies. To analyze such uncertainties in a probabilistic efficient and comprehensive way, programming tools applied to dynamic processes becomes a very significant mechanism (DYSARZ, 2018; HAMOUDA, 2018; PAPAIONNOU et al., 2017). This study analyse the impact of uncertainties related to breach and resistance parameters in two-dimensional hydrodynamics modeling of a dam break scenario. A tool developed in Python is proposed to automate HEC-RAS two-dimensional model for the application of Monte Carlo Method (MMC). The computational routine is structured in such a way that it varies the model input data (i.e: formation time, height, width and slope of the dam breach, Manning Coefficient) according to a selected probability distribution, run automatic simulations and manipulates output data evaluating the model sensitivity through measurements on a global, regional and local scale. The validation of the developed tool is done through a dam failure case study proposed by ICOLD (ZENZ & GOLDGRUBER, 2013) which present a hypothetical dam located in a mountainous region, 3,5 km upstream an urban area.